NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	122		Excitement	4.1 [982]		MVP	Nene (DEN): +12.5%
New Jersey Nets	94		Comeback	1.8 [1028]		LVP	Rafer Alston (NJN): -15.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	6	84%	0.15	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Ty Lawson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.22	0.00	0.13	10	105%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	8	71%	0.11	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	6	50%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	29%	0.00	2	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	11	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	12	62%	0.06	4	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	0.02	24	42%	-0.07	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	11	58%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	-0.04	13	50%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	17	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Josh Boone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	8	52%	0.04	2	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03	9	60%	0.06	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	3	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	55%	0.00	0	0.00	5	40%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	11	34%	-0.02	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	-0.00	-0.06	9	11%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.03	0.04	8	37%	-0.07	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.4	2.6	27.2	15.4	27.6	0.2	28.4	131.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +37.0%

NJN -4.5%

DEN +11.0%

DEN +0.2%

DEN +6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NJN	NBA	DEN	NJN	NBA
this game	12.6	15.3	15.3	119.6	90.4	106.0
season	14.4	15.9		110.3	98.7
opponent	15.0	15.5		108.3	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.8	13.7	12.5	12.6	12.6
NJN	14.9	14.0	15.1	17.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	54	54	0.65	-0.15	0.80	-0.08	25	3	22	12.2	13.1	-0.90	15.7	14.9	0.75
Nene	65	65	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.29	28	0	28	12.3	13.2	-0.88	15.7	14.7	0.98
Anthony Carter	48	49	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.02	16	12	4	12.2	13.0	-0.83	15.9	14.8	1.08
Kenyon Martin	68	70	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	16	-4	12.7	12.6	0.10	14.6	16.8	-2.25
Carmelo Anthony	68	70	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.29	20	8	12	12.7	12.4	0.32	15.3	15.4	-0.07
Ty Lawson	59	60	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.27	13	15	-2	12.8	12.4	0.44	15.0	15.7	-0.61
Chris Andersen	46	46	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.24	12	16	-4	12.6	12.6	0.01	15.8	14.9	0.89
Malik Allen	10	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	25	-22	12.8	12.6	0.19	14.5	15.4	-0.85
Johan Petro	10	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	25	-22	12.8	12.6	0.19	14.5	15.4	-0.85
Renaldo Balkman	15	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	27	-26	13.7	12.4	1.30	16.1	15.2	0.97
Arron Afflalo	67	68	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.26	7	21	-14	13.0	11.9	1.04	15.0	15.9	-0.93

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Boone	62	62	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.27	-8	-20	12	15.3	15.3	0.08	12.8	12.4	0.37
Trenton Hassell	16	15	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-27	26	16.1	15.2	0.97	13.7	12.4	1.30
Sean Williams	16	15	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-29	30	16.1	15.2	0.97	13.7	12.4	1.30
Bobby Simmons	38	36	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.20	-7	-21	14	15.9	15.0	0.88	12.8	12.5	0.23
Terrence Williams	61	58	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.37	-20	-8	-12	15.6	14.9	0.72	12.7	12.6	0.10
Courtney Lee	69	69	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.01	-9	-19	10	14.4	17.1	-2.72	13.0	11.8	1.24
Rafer Alston	65	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	-16	4	14.9	15.9	-1.03	12.6	12.7	-0.16
Brook Lopez	65	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.23	-24	-4	-20	15.5	15.0	0.53	12.0	13.6	-1.60
Eduardo Najera	50	50	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.17	-25	-3	-22	15.4	15.3	0.10	12.6	12.7	-0.13
Chris Douglas-Roberts	78	77	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.41	-35	7	-42	15.4	15.1	0.26	12.2	13.9	-1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.5,0.43,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.19,0.13,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 117, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.38,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
CHH 102, MIA 76	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
MIL 102, VAN 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.57,0.66,0.64,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.31,0.28,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.0%