NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	125		Excitement	5.7 [660]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): +24.1%
Toronto Raptors	116		Comeback	1.1 [1081]		LVP	Jarrett Jack (TOR): -7.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24	0.21	0.06	0.03	14	77%	0.25	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Ryan Anderson	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.06	-0.00	14	67%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.01	-0.00	20	60%	0.17	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	13	57%	0.15	3	-0.08	16	87%	0.05
Anthony Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	9	55%	0.09	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Brandon Bass	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.18	0.07	0.02	12	87%	0.29	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.02	0.02	13	68%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	5	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.03	0.04	20	59%	0.12	3	-0.09	19	68%	-0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	8	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	4	62%	0.06	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.7	36.1	18.5	34.3	2.5	36.5	155.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +8.5%

ORL +14.2%

ORL +8.9%

ORL +15.0%

ORL +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	16.7	14.4	15.3	134.4	126.1	106.0
season	15.4	15.0		110.1	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.9		111.5	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.2	17.0	17.6	18.2	16.7
TOR	15.2	14.3	14.4	13.7	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	86	85	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.20	12	-3	15	16.9	14.3	2.60	14.7	10.9	3.87
Ryan Anderson	53	55	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	-3	15	17.1	16.2	0.86	15.3	13.2	2.08
Dwight Howard	69	67	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.24	6	3	3	17.2	15.2	1.94	15.1	12.8	2.30
Jameer Nelson	70	69	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	7	-5	16.5	17.1	-0.59	14.3	14.7	-0.41
Matt Barnes	78	76	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.31	-1	10	-11	16.7	16.9	-0.21	14.4	14.6	-0.23
Jason Williams	23	23	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.01	7	2	5	17.1	16.5	0.59	14.7	14.3	0.41
Anthony Johnson	22	23	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.04	7	2	5	16.0	16.9	-0.84	13.5	14.8	-1.28
Marcin Gortat	29	29	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	7	-5	16.0	17.0	-1.05	12.9	15.2	-2.30
Brandon Bass	35	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	11	-13	15.7	17.3	-1.52	13.2	15.2	-2.00

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	21	21	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-13	17	13.1	14.8	-1.67	19.9	15.7	4.15
Antoine Wright	48	48	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-11	13	13.2	15.8	-2.65	17.8	15.5	2.37
DeMar DeRozan	37	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	-3	-3	15.3	13.8	1.49	15.9	17.2	-1.30
Marco Belinelli	9	10	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.13	-12	3	-15	14.0	14.5	-0.48	15.2	16.9	-1.67
Hedo Turkoglu	77	77	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.31	0	-9	9	14.6	13.4	1.24	17.0	15.2	1.81
Andrea Bargnani	64	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-9	9	14.7	13.7	0.98	16.0	18.1	-2.16
Jose Calderon	57	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.32	0	-9	9	15.2	13.2	1.99	15.9	18.1	-2.25
Rasho Nesterovic	24	26	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.13	-17	8	-25	15.5	14.1	1.38	15.5	17.1	-1.65
Jarrett Jack	48	49	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	2	-13	13.9	15.0	-1.17	17.0	16.4	0.57
Chris Bosh	75	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.24	-5	-4	-1	14.2	15.4	-1.20	16.8	16.2	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.25,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 114, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.2,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.21,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.04,0,0.01,0	94.5%
DET 76, PHI 66	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.02,0,0	94.3%
HOU 116, GSW 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.09,0.22,0.25,0.08,0.01,0,0	94.3%