NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	85		Excitement	4.8 [840]		MVP	Brad Miller (CHI): +6.5%
Chicago Bulls	92		Comeback	1.7 [444]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (SAS): -9.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.12	-0.01	0.05	19	67%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	11	44%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Michael Finley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	5	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	9	37%	-0.04	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.04
George Hill	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	0.06	6	50%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Tony Parker	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	11	35%	-0.05	3	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	4	10%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.02	0.02	6	69%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	11	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	10	52%	0.07	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.03	13	61%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	35%	0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	12	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	60%	0.01
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.03	-0.06	15	29%	-0.04	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.8	35.6	18.8	27.2	3.7	34.1	148.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +8.9%

CHI +16.6%

CHI +16.1%

CHI +8.7%

SAS -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHI	NBA	SAS	CHI	NBA
this game	15.1	16.1	15.3	91.4	100.0	106.0
season	15.9	14.7		108.2	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.1		103.9	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.2	13.8	18.4	15.2	15.1
CHI	15.6	18.3	14.4	16.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	39	39	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.26	11	-18	29	13.3	16.3	-3.00	16.5	15.8	0.73
Richard Jefferson	58	57	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.09	1	-8	9	15.5	14.4	1.04	16.9	14.7	2.13
Theo Ratliff	5	5	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-3	-1	17.0	15.0	2.03	15.2	16.1	-0.91
Tim Duncan	67	68	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.22	0	-7	7	14.4	16.7	-2.24	16.3	15.5	0.82
DeJuan Blair	24	24	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-3	-1	16.6	14.5	2.09	15.1	16.4	-1.33
Tony Parker	67	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-4	1	14.7	16.1	-1.39	16.2	15.8	0.42
Roger Mason Jr.	34	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	1	-9	15.6	14.8	0.85	16.2	16.0	0.19
George Hill	34	33	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.11	-7	0	-7	15.5	14.8	0.72	16.4	15.9	0.51
Manu Ginobili	50	51	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	-7	0	-7	14.5	15.8	-1.33	15.6	16.6	-1.03
Michael Finley	56	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.36	1	-8	9	14.6	15.8	-1.13	16.0	16.2	-0.20
Antonio McDyess	31	30	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.02	-15	8	-23	17.9	13.6	4.29	14.6	16.8	-2.17

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	77	77	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.26	6	1	5	16.3	14.9	1.35	14.6	17.6	-3.00
Kirk Hinrich	55	57	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.24	6	1	5	16.2	15.9	0.24	15.3	14.7	0.58
Brad Miller	41	44	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	-5	17	15.1	16.9	-1.79	16.2	14.1	2.06
Luol Deng	73	74	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.30	3	4	-1	16.2	15.4	0.88	14.6	16.9	-2.35
Tyrus Thomas	51	51	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.07	9	-2	11	15.4	16.9	-1.42	16.2	13.7	2.53
Derrick Rose	66	64	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	3	1	16.3	15.4	0.90	15.1	14.9	0.21
Joakim Noah	55	52	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.26	-5	12	-17	16.7	15.1	1.69	14.2	16.2	-1.96
Taj Gibson	30	30	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	7	-7	15.3	16.5	-1.18	15.9	14.7	1.22
Jannero Pargo	12	16	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	7	-7	16.7	16.0	0.69	13.4	15.4	-2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.64,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 83, IND 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.84,0.85,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.85,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
PHX 106, SAS 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.79,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1	95.0%
PHX 79, CHI 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.36,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.79,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.84,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%