NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	90		Excitement	6.1 [594]		MVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): +16.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	98		Comeback	2.1 [829]		LVP	Zaza Pachulia (ATL): -15.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Solomon Jones	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	3	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Josh Smith	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	4	87%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	-0.01	0.05	16	64%	0.07	1	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Ronald Murray	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	21	53%	0.15	4	-0.12	13	92%	0.07
Othello Hunter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	3	30%	0.00	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Randolph Morris	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Gardner	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.02	-0.07	0.05	8	44%	-0.08	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	6	29%	-0.07	2	-0.09	2	0%	-0.03

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	-0.00	13	67%	0.18	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.04
Marc Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.09	0.03	12	63%	0.17	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.00	17	62%	0.20	3	-0.10	8	100%	0.05
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	10	55%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	12	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	20%	-0.05
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Hamed Haddadi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.5	27.5	18.0	31.1	2.5	28.5	132.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +37.6%

ATL -3.5%

MEM +1.3%

MEM +17.5%

ATL -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MEM	NBA	ATL	MEM	NBA
this game	16.2	15.3	15.5	98.9	106.5	106.4
season	15.8	16.1		106.7	101.7
opponent	15.3	16.1		107.6	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.3	17.9	13.7	15.7	16.2
MEM	15.4	13.4	16.8	15.6	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	18	17	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.03	5	-13	18	16.9	16.0	0.92	17.2	14.9	2.34
Zaza Pachulia	42	43	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.19	8	-16	24	15.8	16.4	-0.64	17.3	13.6	3.71
Randolph Morris	16	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-4	0	15.5	16.3	-0.79	12.6	15.9	-3.27
Mario West	59	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-4	0	15.8	16.7	-0.92	15.0	15.9	-0.86
Thomas Gardner	47	49	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-4	0	16.0	16.4	-0.41	15.2	15.4	-0.17
Speedy Claxton	16	16	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	3	-14	16.4	16.1	0.34	13.3	15.7	-2.44
Othello Hunter	53	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	0	-8	16.3	16.0	0.26	14.4	16.7	-2.27
Maurice Evans	69	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-5	2	16.4	15.4	1.04	15.6	14.3	1.32
Ronald Murray	81	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.22	-7	-1	-6	16.2	15.7	0.51	15.6	13.5	2.13
Solomon Jones	54	55	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.17	-12	4	-16	16.3	15.9	0.35	15.1	15.6	-0.54

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	72	72	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.27	20	-12	32	15.1	16.0	-0.86	16.5	14.9	1.52
Marc Gasol	55	55	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.33	17	-9	26	15.0	15.9	-0.90	16.6	15.5	1.13
Mike Conley	85	85	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.30	4	4	0	15.7	10.9	4.84	16.3	14.3	1.95
Hakim Warrick	56	53	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.09	9	-1	10	15.7	14.7	1.04	17.0	15.0	2.03
O.J. Mayo	81	79	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	1	6	14.9	18.2	-3.24	16.1	16.3	-0.21
Hamed Haddadi	13	12	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.03	10	-2	12	12.9	15.7	-2.80	15.2	16.3	-1.04
Marko Jaric	46	45	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	13	-18	15.0	15.7	-0.74	15.1	17.2	-2.11
Darrell Arthur	34	36	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.07	-10	18	-28	16.1	14.8	1.30	14.6	17.2	-2.60
Darko Milicic	18	18	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.06	-12	20	-32	17.1	14.9	2.15	16.9	16.0	0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.83,0.81,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.72,0.95,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 99, BOS 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.86,0.93,0.97,1,1	93.0%
MIL 111, CHH 117	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.61,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.99,1	92.1%
POR 87, PHI 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.73,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.1%