NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	81		Excitement	6.3 [550]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +16.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	93		Comeback	1.4 [945]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (HOU): -15.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	10	70%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	10	67%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Von Wafer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	41%	0.01	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.00
James White	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	19	51%	0.06	5	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Yao Ming	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	12	53%	0.03	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Charles Hayes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	7	14%	-0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.05	-0.00	11	83%	0.24	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	11	60%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
DJ Mbenga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	19	50%	0.05	2	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	6	36%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	6	43%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	10	41%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	6	25%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	7	14%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.0	30.1	19.7	30.0	2.8	34.2	147.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +9.6%

LAL +4.1%

LAL +9.4%

LAL +25.4%

LAL +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	LAL	NBA	HOU	LAL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.7	15.5	89.0	101.1	106.4
season	16.3	14.9		105.9	110.6
opponent	15.4	15.2		102.6	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.0	16.3	18.0	12.9	15.7
LAL	16.8	13.7	14.8	17.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James White	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-12	12	13.5	15.8	-2.30	22.0	15.6	6.41
Charles Hayes	25	24	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-8	4	14.3	16.3	-1.97	15.5	15.8	-0.25
Von Wafer	35	37	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-12	12	13.2	17.3	-4.14	15.8	15.7	0.05
Kyle Lowry	42	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.04	-2	-10	8	14.6	16.7	-2.14	15.3	16.1	-0.77
Brent Barry	26	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.03	-6	-6	0	13.5	16.7	-3.20	15.0	16.0	-0.96
Shane Battier	64	66	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-4	-4	16.4	14.3	2.12	15.9	15.3	0.59
Metta World Peace	72	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	-5	-2	16.1	14.5	1.61	15.8	15.6	0.16
Aaron Brooks	51	52	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	-2	-8	16.6	14.6	1.96	16.3	15.0	1.33
Yao Ming	75	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.18	-8	-4	-4	16.5	12.2	4.24	15.5	16.8	-1.34
Luis Scola	63	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.09	-15	3	-18	16.9	13.1	3.76	15.7	15.7	0.07

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	54	54	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.02	21	-9	30	15.4	16.2	-0.73	16.8	14.2	2.63
Kobe Bryant	72	71	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.11	16	-4	20	15.9	15.1	0.74	16.6	12.8	3.78
Lamar Odom	60	61	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.03	17	-5	22	15.5	16.1	-0.51	16.8	13.7	3.05
Trevor Ariza	56	55	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.04	16	-4	20	16.1	15.2	0.83	17.2	13.5	3.72
DJ Mbenga	20	19	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.05	7	5	2	15.4	15.8	-0.36	16.4	15.6	0.85
Pau Gasol	72	72	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.10	5	7	-2	15.8	15.4	0.36	15.6	16.4	-0.85
Luke Walton	36	36	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	16	-20	15.2	16.1	-0.83	13.5	17.2	-3.72
Josh Powell	32	30	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.12	-5	17	-22	16.1	15.5	0.51	13.7	16.8	-3.05
Sasha Vujacic	20	20	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	16	-20	15.1	15.9	-0.74	12.8	16.6	-3.78
Jordan Farmar	38	37	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.17	-9	21	-30	16.2	15.4	0.73	14.2	16.8	-2.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.75,0.72,0.82,0.78,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.96,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 83, ATL 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.76,0.77,0.89,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%
MIL 99, IND 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.77,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.0%
MIN 76, CLE 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.81,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.83,0.94,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.0%