NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	101		Excitement	6.1 [602]		MVP	Darius Songaila (WAS): +24.3%
Washington Wizards	109		Comeback	1.9 [114]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -5.2%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.00	15	56%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Anderson Varejao	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.06	0.11	-0.03	0.02	18	72%	0.22	6	-0.16	7	71%	-0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	14	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	43%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darnell Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	41%	0.00	1	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.15	0.11	0.02	8	77%	0.24	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.07	-0.00	4	78%	0.14	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.00	9	60%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	16	58%	0.10	1	-0.02	11	100%	0.05
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	19	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	9	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	11	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.5	29.5	20.2	27.8	3.0	37.2	145.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE -4.7%

WAS +31.2%

WAS +8.8%

WAS +9.8%

WAS +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	WAS	NBA	CLE	WAS	NBA
this game	16.5	15.7	15.5	112.2	122.5	106.4
season	16.9	15.9		110.6	103.5
opponent	15.2	15.2		111.7	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	16.9	18.4	16.6	14.1	16.5
WAS	16.6	15.9	13.4	17.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darnell Jackson	33	33	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.11	12	-20	32	17.0	16.2	0.81	16.4	15.3	1.12
Sasha Pavlovic	7	8	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-8	8	12.4	16.8	-4.37	17.9	15.5	2.37
Wally Szczerbiak	32	30	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	-3	-2	16.9	16.2	0.70	14.3	16.4	-2.14
Joe Smith	13	12	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	0	-8	20.1	15.8	4.23	16.6	15.6	1.00
Daniel Gibson	34	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	-3	-2	17.2	16.0	1.16	15.1	16.1	-0.98
Mo Williams	73	75	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.34	4	-12	16	16.7	15.4	1.29	16.3	12.4	3.90
Anderson Varejao	57	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-7	6	16.3	16.8	-0.48	15.6	15.9	-0.26
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	62	60	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	1	-10	15.9	17.6	-1.72	16.3	14.5	1.78
Delonte West	66	65	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.17	-15	7	-22	16.2	17.0	-0.80	15.0	17.5	-2.50
LeBron James	73	72	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.32	-13	5	-18	16.0	18.5	-2.56	15.4	16.9	-1.51

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	75	75	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.31	13	-5	18	15.4	17.6	-2.28	16.2	17.9	-1.69
Brendan Haywood	60	60	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.28	13	-5	18	15.4	16.3	-0.83	16.2	16.9	-0.62
Dominic McGuire	66	66	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.20	7	1	6	15.4	16.7	-1.26	16.6	16.0	0.56
Gilbert Arenas	63	63	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	3	2	15.9	15.3	0.58	15.9	17.7	-1.78
Darius Songaila	45	45	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.23	1	7	-6	16.0	15.5	0.48	16.1	16.8	-0.78
Nick Young	44	46	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.06	3	5	-2	16.0	15.5	0.47	16.7	16.2	0.49
Antawn Jamison	60	61	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.02	3	5	-2	15.9	15.3	0.66	16.3	16.8	-0.55
JaVale McGee	9	9	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	9	-10	17.2	15.5	1.67	21.9	15.9	6.04
Andray Blatche	23	25	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.03	-4	12	-16	16.0	15.6	0.38	17.5	16.1	1.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.83,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.83,0.85,0.97,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 93, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.9,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,1	93.4%
WAS 103, HOU 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.71,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.85,0.72,1	93.2%
MEM 103, SAS 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.84,0.79,0.71,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.97,1,1,1,1	92.8%