NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	102		Excitement	5.4 [734]		MVP	Tim Thomas (CHI): +18.2%
Chicago Bulls	120		Comeback	1.0 [648]		LVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): -10.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Courtney Lee	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.01	9	70%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	14	50%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
JJ Redick	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	7	71%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	4	50%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Richardson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.00	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.07	-0.01	0.06	18	59%	0.08	3	-0.08	8	75%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	0.02	-0.03	12	37%	0.01	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	-0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	12	40%	-0.06	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.06	0.03	8	85%	0.18	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.01	20	55%	0.15	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	14	67%	0.15	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	4	93%	0.14	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	7	58%	0.08	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	9	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	53%	0.04	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	12	42%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.6	28.4	17.4	23.4	2.4	32.6	130.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +42.1%

CHI +5.9%

ORL -0.6%

CHI +3.6%

ORL -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.0	14.7	15.5	106.2	122.4	106.4
season	15.3	14.8		107.3	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.8		107.2	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.3	16.1	17.0	14.1	15.0
CHI	13.3	14.5	16.5	14.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Battie	21	24	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-18	18	13.2	15.5	-2.34	14.5	14.7	-0.23
Tyronn Lue	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-17	16	13.6	15.1	-1.50	16.2	14.6	1.59
Jeremy Richardson	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-17	16	13.6	15.1	-1.50	16.2	14.6	1.59
Anthony Johnson	29	30	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-20	22	17.0	14.1	2.89	16.2	14.0	2.20
Dwight Howard	68	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	-9	0	15.1	14.8	0.28	14.7	14.7	0.03
Marcin Gortat	28	29	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	-9	0	14.8	15.1	-0.28	14.7	14.7	-0.03
Courtney Lee	68	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	-8	-2	14.9	15.2	-0.27	14.9	14.0	0.91
JJ Redick	52	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-9	0	15.0	15.0	-0.00	14.3	15.1	-0.73
Rashard Lewis	67	67	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	-5	-8	15.6	13.7	1.91	14.9	14.3	0.56
Rafer Alston	62	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.09	-19	1	-20	14.2	16.5	-2.34	13.8	16.2	-2.40
Hedo Turkoglu	75	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	0.05	-21	3	-24	15.2	14.4	0.76	14.4	15.4	-0.99

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	72	72	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.00	16	2	14	14.1	16.2	-2.01	15.0	15.0	0.08
Tim Thomas	50	49	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.09	19	-1	20	14.7	14.7	0.01	14.9	15.1	-0.25
John Salmons	55	53	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.09	16	2	14	15.1	14.2	0.87	14.8	15.3	-0.59
Brad Miller	44	41	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.15	5	13	-8	14.5	14.9	-0.40	13.9	15.9	-1.99
Kirk Hinrich	55	52	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.00	9	9	0	14.9	14.3	0.58	14.4	15.8	-1.43
Derrick Rose	69	68	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.06	11	7	4	15.0	13.8	1.20	15.5	13.9	1.64
Joakim Noah	48	50	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.14	12	6	6	14.7	14.7	0.03	16.1	13.8	2.25
Luol Deng	48	48	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	15	-12	14.4	14.9	-0.54	15.2	14.9	0.29
Tyrus Thomas	49	47	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	19	-20	14.7	14.7	0.04	15.1	14.9	0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.63,0.52,0.7,0.81,0.75,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 101, DAL 116	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.82,0.88,0.76,0.79,0.67,0.6,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.91,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
MIL 101, LAC 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.73,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.73,0.68,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.76,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.64,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.89,0.98,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
TOR 101, MIA 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.76,0.82,0.87,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.88,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.92,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%