NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	6.5 [517]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +20.9%
Chicago Bulls	116		Comeback	3.4 [222]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -24.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Linas Kleiza	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.02	10	67%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.00	4	70%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Chauncey Billups	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.05	-0.01	16	69%	0.17	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Sonny Weems	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.04	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Nene	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	17	51%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Dahntay Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.17	-0.10	-0.02	18	30%	-0.17	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.04

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.22	0.05	0.06	23	70%	0.24	2	-0.03	7	100%	0.02
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.04	0.03	11	68%	0.14	3	-0.05	9	78%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.04	0.06	13	61%	0.09	1	-0.03	10	100%	0.04
Lindsey Hunter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	8	59%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	7	56%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	11	45%	0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	29.5	15.7	28.1	1.7	35.0	135.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +25.8%

CHI +16.1%

DEN -0.6%

CHI +6.7%

CHI +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHI	NBA	DEN	CHI	NBA
this game	14.9	14.2	15.5	100.0	117.2	106.4
season	14.4	14.8		109.5	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.7		107.2	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	14.6	15.8	14.5	14.9
CHI	13.0	12.0	17.0	15.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	36	36	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-21	25	15.6	14.4	1.14	16.1	13.2	2.87
Sonny Weems	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	9.0	15.0	-5.98	29.0	13.9	15.07
Kenyon Martin	40	41	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.03	-2	-15	13	15.2	14.6	0.61	12.5	15.4	-2.94
Chris Andersen	46	46	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.01	-2	-15	13	14.2	15.5	-1.32	15.9	12.8	3.14
J.R. Smith	42	43	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.03	-6	-11	5	14.3	15.3	-1.04	13.8	14.5	-0.70
Anthony Carter	59	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.12	-18	1	-19	14.2	15.9	-1.75	14.0	14.5	-0.48
Linas Kleiza	57	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.02	-14	-3	-11	13.5	16.6	-3.10	14.1	14.4	-0.28
Chauncey Billups	74	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.03	-16	-1	-15	15.1	14.2	0.88	14.3	14.0	0.26
Nene	73	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.06	-13	-4	-9	15.6	12.8	2.78	14.1	14.7	-0.68
Carmelo Anthony	66	64	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.09	-18	1	-19	16.0	12.6	3.42	13.3	15.9	-2.60

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	83	83	0.69	-0.18	0.87	0.10	20	-3	23	14.0	15.4	-1.44	15.0	13.9	1.10
Luol Deng	93	93	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.01	19	-2	21	14.2	14.5	-0.28	14.9	14.3	0.56
Tyrus Thomas	92	92	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	5	7	14.4	11.4	3.02	15.0	13.1	1.85
Joakim Noah	64	64	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.06	14	3	11	14.9	13.1	1.77	15.7	13.4	2.30
Kirk Hinrich	65	65	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.07	14	3	11	14.0	14.7	-0.77	14.3	15.9	-1.51
Aaron Gray	41	41	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.01	10	7	3	12.5	15.4	-2.89	14.1	15.4	-1.26
Lindsey Hunter	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	17	-17	21.0	14.2	6.84	9.0	14.9	-5.92
Derrick Rose	56	56	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.02	-4	21	-25	15.0	13.3	1.69	14.6	15.1	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.44,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.72,0.83,0.87,0.82,0.74,0.7,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.73,0.92,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 83, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	93.0%
MIN 99, GSW 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.26,0.39,0.54,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.72,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1	91.8%
WAS 91, NJN 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.28,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.61,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.67,0.58,0.69,0.8,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,1	91.1%