NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	92		Excitement	5.3 [748]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (MIL): +39.0%
Detroit Pistons	86		Comeback	1.1 [341]		LVP	Rodney Stuckey (DET): -19.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.39	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.27,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.39	0.22	0.18	0.02	13	78%	0.41	1	-0.02	11	82%	-0.00
Malik Allen	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.05	-0.02	12	58%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	67%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Keith Bogans	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Eddie Gill	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	0.00	-0.04	14	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Bell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	10	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	17	40%	-0.07	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.08

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.17,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.15	0.09	0.02	15	73%	0.29	1	-0.07	3	67%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	19	49%	0.02	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.03
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	11	42%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	0.01	0.01	13	34%	-0.05	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	6	21%	-0.15	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.4	27.4	16.6	27.0	0.2	32.4	133.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +35.9%

MIL +1.1%

DET -17.1%

MIL +22.0%

MIL +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	16.2	15.7	15.5	102.2	94.5	106.4
season	15.0	16.9		104.9	104.9
opponent	15.7	15.6		106.2	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.1	14.2	15.7	17.9	16.2
DET	17.2	15.8	14.9	14.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	76	77	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.16	14	-8	22	15.9	17.4	-1.41	16.2	12.9	3.23
Ramon Sessions	79	79	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	1	4	16.2	15.9	0.29	15.6	16.2	-0.58
Francisco Elson	51	53	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.21	7	-1	8	16.1	16.2	-0.11	15.9	15.4	0.50
Charlie Bell	45	45	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	8	-10	16.5	15.8	0.64	15.1	16.2	-1.08
Luc Mbah a Moute	59	60	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.12	4	2	2	15.9	16.7	-0.78	15.1	16.7	-1.54
Malik Allen	53	53	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.38	-6	12	-18	16.1	16.2	-0.08	15.3	16.2	-0.90
Charlie Villanueva	46	47	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	3	0	16.7	15.6	1.13	16.7	14.6	2.11
Keith Bogans	24	24	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	6	-6	15.5	16.4	-0.91	15.2	15.8	-0.67
Dan Gadzuric	6	5	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.05	4	2	2	18.3	16.0	2.32	13.8	15.8	-1.97
Eddie Gill	11	12	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	5	-4	15.9	16.2	-0.29	16.2	15.6	0.58

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	11	13	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.01	2	-8	10	14.0	15.9	-1.89	19.2	15.7	3.49
Will Bynum	6	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-7	8	11.2	16.0	-4.81	11.2	16.5	-5.26
Amir Johnson	28	27	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-5	4	15.4	15.8	-0.44	14.6	16.8	-2.20
Arron Afflalo	16	16	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.05	-7	1	-8	15.5	15.7	-0.19	12.4	17.0	-4.54
Rodney Stuckey	56	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.24	0	-6	6	16.7	14.0	2.74	16.7	15.3	1.40
Richard Hamilton	62	61	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.38	2	-8	10	14.8	17.4	-2.58	16.5	15.5	1.01
Tayshaun Prince	58	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	4	-14	15.1	16.6	-1.44	15.5	17.3	-1.84
Antonio McDyess	76	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-5	4	16.2	12.7	3.58	16.7	13.7	2.94
Allen Iverson	78	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.28	-7	1	-8	15.9	14.2	1.67	16.6	13.1	3.56
Rasheed Wallace	64	63	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.27	-9	3	-12	15.9	15.1	0.78	16.2	16.1	0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.25,0.28,0.38,0.21,0.1,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 110, DEN 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.17,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.14,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.17,0.15,0.31,0.19,0.39,0.31,0.11,0.09,0.26,0	93.7%
CHA 105, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.22,0.31,0.19,0.03,0,0	93.5%
SEA 86, IND 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.22,0.25,0.45,0.24,0.1,0	93.5%