NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	82		Excitement	3.7 [1067]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +9.4%
Orlando Magic	73		Comeback	1.1 [322]		LVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): -18.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09	0.05	0.01	-0.04	18	54%	0.13	2	-0.04	18	83%	0.03
Anthony Carter	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.04	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	9	62%	0.09	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Johan Petro	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	12	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	55%	0.02	3	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
J.R. Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.04	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.03	7	56%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	12	37%	-0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.14	0.00	-0.08	12	37%	0.01	5	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	5	33%	-0.03	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.00	0.04	7	57%	0.01	6	-0.13	14	57%	-0.04
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.01	0.07	13	44%	-0.09	5	-0.09	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.6	2.4	32.4	16.3	31.5	2.3	34.7	149.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +38.0%

DEN +6.8%

ORL -5.6%

DEN +11.1%

ORL -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	15.5	15.4	15.5	89.1	77.7	106.4
season	14.4	15.3		109.5	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.7		101.4	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.5	14.5	17.7	18.2	15.5
ORL	15.2	15.5	16.6	14.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	77	80	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.19	12	-3	15	15.8	14.2	1.61	15.3	16.2	-0.93
Nene	59	62	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.04	15	-6	21	15.1	16.4	-1.33	15.5	15.2	0.27
Carmelo Anthony	73	75	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.16	10	-1	11	15.0	17.5	-2.50	15.1	16.5	-1.38
Kenyon Martin	70	71	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	2	5	15.2	16.5	-1.32	15.5	15.1	0.39
Anthony Carter	50	50	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.19	3	6	-3	16.5	14.5	2.01	15.5	15.3	0.16
Linas Kleiza	45	46	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.25	-1	10	-11	17.2	13.9	3.33	15.3	15.6	-0.32
Dahntay Jones	33	32	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.00	6	3	3	14.1	16.4	-2.31	16.0	15.1	0.87
J.R. Smith	24	26	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	12	-15	14.8	15.8	-0.96	15.0	15.6	-0.59
Johan Petro	29	28	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	13	-17	15.9	15.4	0.57	16.0	15.2	0.82

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Battie	22	22	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-9	9	16.5	15.1	1.40	15.5	15.6	-0.06
Tyronn Lue	32	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-7	5	16.9	14.7	2.24	15.6	15.5	0.06
JJ Redick	14	12	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-7	5	15.8	15.4	0.42	18.6	15.1	3.50
Marcin Gortat	19	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-5	1	15.5	15.4	0.13	16.4	15.3	1.12
Hedo Turkoglu	66	68	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.27	2	-11	13	15.2	16.0	-0.87	15.5	15.6	-0.05
Courtney Lee	58	55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-8	7	15.2	15.8	-0.57	16.7	13.8	2.90
Anthony Johnson	44	44	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.06	-13	4	-17	15.7	15.2	0.44	14.4	16.6	-2.17
Dwight Howard	75	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.24	-5	-4	-1	15.4	15.5	-0.13	15.3	16.4	-1.12
Mickael Pietrus	68	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	2	-13	14.9	16.7	-1.75	14.8	17.5	-2.73
Rashard Lewis	72	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	0	-9	15.1	16.5	-1.40	15.6	15.5	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 95, MIA 75	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.2,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
HOU 97, SAS 78	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.19,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
SEA 109, TOR 92	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	96.4%