NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	102		Excitement	7.1 [415]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +44.3%
Chicago Bulls	107		Comeback	58.9 [16]		LVP	Rodney Stuckey (DET): -12.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.31,0.21	0.11	0.08	-0.01	11	77%	0.25	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.07
Richard Hamilton	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.1	0.10	-0.01	-0.01	21	60%	0.20	2	-0.10	8	75%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.01	-0.06	16	50%	0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	6	50%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Will Bynum	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	40%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Walter Herrmann	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney Stuckey	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	16	44%	-0.01	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,0.44	0.44	0.00	0.43	-0.01	18	55%	0.58	5	-0.14	8	62%	-0.01
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.03	0.03	15	68%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.04
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.10	-0.01	0.02	6	87%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	11	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	14	54%	0.03	5	-0.12	13	77%	-0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	7	35%	-0.05	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.7	25.2	40.5	25.5	2.5	43.2	168.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +22.5%

CHI +0.3%

CHI +24.8%

DET -0.4%

CHI +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHI	NBA	DET	CHI	NBA
this game	16.7	14.3	15.5	109.7	115.1	106.4
season	16.9	14.8		104.9	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.7		107.2	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.8	17.6	16.9	19.1	16.7
CHI	12.9	17.6	15.8	11.7	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	36	37	0.39	-0.89	1.28	0.01	13	-18	31	15.5	17.5	-2.02	15.5	13.4	2.13
Will Bynum	12	12	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.07	5	-10	15	20.1	16.2	3.87	17.7	13.7	4.01
Walter Herrmann	1	1	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-3	1	0.0	16.9	-16.89	15.0	14.2	0.75
Jason Maxiell	26	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.10	-8	3	-11	16.7	16.7	-0.08	14.2	14.3	-0.08
Arron Afflalo	33	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.13	-11	6	-17	14.6	17.9	-3.31	13.2	14.9	-1.70
Rasheed Wallace	64	66	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.58	11	-16	27	17.1	15.8	1.33	14.4	13.9	0.52
Tayshaun Prince	83	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.50	5	-10	15	17.1	13.1	4.04	14.4	13.2	1.22
Rodney Stuckey	79	79	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	3	-11	16.5	17.7	-1.18	14.0	15.9	-1.88
Richard Hamilton	72	72	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.37	-6	1	-7	16.8	16.3	0.49	14.3	14.0	0.33
Antonio McDyess	59	57	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.27	-24	19	-43	17.3	15.6	1.67	13.3	15.8	-2.57

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andres Nocioni	47	46	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.42	13	-8	21	13.5	15.0	-1.51	18.1	15.4	2.73
Joakim Noah	85	85	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.34	8	-3	11	13.8	19.0	-5.19	16.3	20.7	-4.42
Tyrus Thomas	78	78	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.45	4	1	3	14.5	12.8	1.74	17.1	14.7	2.44
Ben Gordon	67	69	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-8	21	14.3	14.0	0.30	15.6	20.0	-4.49
Derrick Rose	55	55	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.54	-2	7	-9	15.0	13.2	1.86	17.3	15.9	1.38
Kirk Hinrich	51	50	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	3	-1	13.9	14.6	-0.70	16.9	16.5	0.45
Thabo Sefolosha	23	23	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.11	-1	6	-7	14.3	14.3	0.00	19.3	15.8	3.50
Luol Deng	59	59	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	-0.10	-12	17	-29	14.6	13.7	0.92	15.3	19.2	-3.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 82, IND 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.48,0.38,0.27,0.3,0.36,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.04,1	93.2%
UTA 101, CLE 104	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.35,0.28,0.17,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.42,1	91.7%
PHI 100, MIN 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.33,0.09,1	91.4%