NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	113		Excitement	7.8 [262]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +37.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder	116		Comeback	2.2 [673]		LVP	Francisco Garcia (SAC): -13.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.36	0.27	0.11	0.02	14	91%	0.36	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Spencer Hawes	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2	0.09	0.11	-0.00	10	75%	0.23	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0.16	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,0.02,-0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.08,0.16	0.04	0.11	-0.01	19	57%	0.21	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.08	0.03	16	59%	0.19	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.05
Mikki Moore	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	3	62%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Shelden Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	7	40%	-0.00	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Francisco Garcia	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,-0.13	0.06	-0.17	0.02	8	62%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.38	0.38	0.22	0.16	0.00	25	71%	0.41	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.03
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.29,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.06	0.01	5	88%	0.19	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.07
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.08	-0.02	10	64%	0.19	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.09	0.00	7	64%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Weaver	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	13	50%	0.11	2	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0	-0.00	-0.11	0.08	-0.03	14	31%	0.03	2	-0.03	7	71%	-0.04
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	4	40%	-0.07	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.4	31.8	15.7	20.3	1.8	37.7	134.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +3.1%

OKC +11.0%

OKC +33.3%

OKC +3.0%

SAC -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	OKC	NBA	SAC	OKC	NBA
this game	14.4	15.6	15.5	117.7	120.8	106.4
season	15.0	14.9		104.0	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.1		106.6	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.9	14.1	14.8	13.6	14.4
OKC	12.8	15.9	17.2	17.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mikki Moore	31	32	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.05	5	-8	13	13.6	14.7	-1.08	16.3	15.3	1.03
Jason Thompson	71	71	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-8	13	14.5	14.1	0.34	16.0	14.5	1.49
Bobby Brown	6	6	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	2	-7	17.2	14.2	2.98	18.7	15.4	3.24
Shelden Williams	13	12	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	4	-11	11.6	14.8	-3.19	13.3	16.0	-2.62
Beno Udrih	77	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.46	5	-8	13	14.1	15.3	-1.17	15.2	17.4	-2.17
John Salmons	83	82	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.39	1	-4	5	14.4	14.0	0.43	15.0	19.1	-4.12
Spencer Hawes	63	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	6	-15	15.6	12.1	3.53	16.0	14.9	1.15
Francisco Garcia	54	54	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.34	-8	5	-13	13.2	15.9	-2.72	15.2	16.2	-1.01
Kevin Martin	82	83	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.59	-2	-1	-1	14.8	11.8	3.03	16.1	12.6	3.48

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	65	66	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.55	3	0	3	15.2	16.6	-1.46	15.5	11.9	3.60
Nick Collison	54	53	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.53	3	0	3	14.6	16.9	-2.32	15.0	13.7	1.31
Earl Watson	62	62	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	-2	7	15.8	15.3	0.47	14.2	14.7	-0.51
Kevin Durant	92	91	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	-2	7	15.5	17.5	-1.96	14.2	17.8	-3.61
Russell Westbrook	79	77	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	3	-3	14.7	19.9	-5.17	13.9	16.2	-2.22
Kyle Weaver	51	53	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	2	-1	16.8	14.2	2.60	15.2	13.3	1.90
Joe Smith	35	36	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.21	4	-1	5	16.7	15.0	1.76	13.3	15.0	-1.76
Nenad Krstic	42	42	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.00	-6	9	-15	16.9	14.6	2.28	13.2	15.3	-2.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.88,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.87,0.84,0.74,0.84,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.59,0.6,0.71,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.62,0.73,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.39,0.54,0.94,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 97, GSW 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.61,0.74,0.63,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.64,0.71,0.53,0.47,0.63,0.76,0.83,1	91.2%
CLE 100, UTA 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.69,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.46,0.39,0.47,0.78,0.89,0.92,1	91.2%
SAC 99, HOU 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.58,0.57,0.67,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.34,0.55,0.71,0.94,0.96,1	90.8%