NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	97		Excitement	9.4 [97]		MVP	Sean Marks (NOH): +54.7%
New Orleans Hornets	101		Comeback	4.5 [325]		LVP	Sebastian Telfair (MIN): -15.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Gomes	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24	0.12	0.12	0.00	14	75%	0.31	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rashad McCants	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Carney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Randy Foye	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.11,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.17,-0.17,-0.04	-0.12	0.03	-0.04	15	31%	0.07	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.11
Mike Miller	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	47%	-0.00	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.03
Al Jefferson	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.07	-0.13	0.01	18	58%	-0.02	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.02
Brian Cardinal	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.16	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.04,0.07,-0.16	0.01	-0.14	0.02	11	52%	0.07	2	-0.22	5	60%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.22,0.55	0.55	0.13	0.42	0.00	8	72%	0.55	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.05
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.15	-0.01	0.02	15	66%	0.11	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	-0.04	6	56%	0.09	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.05	-0.00	8	58%	0.15	3	-0.09	8	87%	0.06
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.00	9	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
David West	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	7	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.03	0.01	11	38%	-0.00	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	31.5	15.6	26.0	2.0	46.0	146.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +31.3%

NOH +21.7%

MIN -40.0%

NOH +34.7%

NOH +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	NOH	NBA	MIN	NOH	NBA
this game	16.0	15.7	15.5	105.4	112.2	106.4
season	15.8	16.6		104.3	105.9
opponent	15.6	15.1		106.0	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.5	13.5	17.7	17.7	16.0
NOH	16.5	14.2	18.3	14.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Jefferson	68	66	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.10	6	-10	16	17.1	12.7	4.37	16.9	12.3	4.60
Rashad McCants	8	8	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-2	0	13.4	16.2	-2.85	13.2	15.9	-2.65
Rodney Carney	41	41	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-2	0	14.2	17.4	-3.22	15.3	16.0	-0.64
Brian Cardinal	27	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-1	-2	15.7	16.1	-0.34	14.1	16.3	-2.18
Sebastian Telfair	62	62	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.30	4	-8	12	15.8	16.4	-0.58	16.5	13.9	2.63
Kevin Love	55	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.21	-6	2	-8	15.6	16.5	-0.90	15.1	16.6	-1.48
Ryan Gomes	67	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.35	-3	-1	-2	16.9	13.6	3.27	16.1	14.6	1.53
Randy Foye	65	63	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.47	-4	0	-4	16.6	14.6	2.01	15.9	15.1	0.85
Mike Miller	67	65	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.41	-10	6	-16	15.3	17.7	-2.39	14.6	18.4	-3.84

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	68	69	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.37	17	-13	30	14.9	18.0	-3.09	15.8	16.6	-0.78
Devin Brown	40	40	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.41	7	-3	10	13.9	17.1	-3.14	15.6	16.2	-0.63
Peja Stojakovic	72	74	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.34	8	-4	12	15.7	15.4	0.28	16.6	13.4	3.22
Rasual Butler	75	78	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-1	6	15.9	14.4	1.52	15.5	18.8	-3.31
Sean Marks	47	48	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	1	2	15.4	16.0	-0.55	14.9	17.1	-2.22
Hilton Armstrong	16	16	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	1	2	15.4	15.7	-0.28	18.8	15.4	3.43
Julian Wright	28	27	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.02	-1	5	-6	14.9	16.0	-1.18	16.7	15.7	1.08
Antonio Daniels	50	52	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	7	-10	17.1	13.9	3.14	16.2	15.6	0.63
David West	32	33	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	10	-16	16.2	15.4	0.76	15.3	16.4	-1.05
Ryan Bowen	22	23	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	0.01	-13	17	-30	18.0	14.9	3.09	16.6	15.8	0.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.35,0.24,0.3,0.18,0.34,0.48,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.47,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.57,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 94, MIL 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.72,1	92.9%
ATL 75, ORL 79	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.47,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.58,1	92.4%
POR 91, NYK 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.74,1	92.3%