NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	99		Excitement	4.6 [908]		MVP	Josh Howard (DAL): +15.0%
Dallas Mavericks	104		Comeback	1.2 [855]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -7.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Outlaw	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	10	57%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.02	0.03	16	57%	0.04	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Nicolas Batum	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Oden	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	0.04	-0.03	0.04	8	57%	0.01	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Brandon Roy	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	0.04	-0.05	0.03	20	62%	0.09	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.03	0.03	9	70%	0.05	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.01	0.01	17	68%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.01	0.02	11	83%	0.17	2	-0.05	1	100%	-0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	8	61%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.01	15	57%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.03	5	70%	0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Singleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	13	50%	0.01	4	-0.09	6	83%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	25.7	16.5	24.6	2.7	42.3	138.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +38.4%

POR -2.5%

POR -2.2%

DAL +9.7%

DAL +6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DAL	NBA	POR	DAL	NBA
this game	16.4	15.4	15.5	108.8	115.6	106.4
season	16.7	15.6		111.0	108.9
opponent	15.4	16.0		107.1	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.2	18.0	16.7	15.0	16.4
DAL	14.3	14.8	16.8	15.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	40	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-7	9	16.5	16.4	0.15	16.0	14.9	1.19
Nicolas Batum	25	24	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	3	-11	17.8	15.9	1.91	13.7	16.0	-2.31
Sergio Rodriguez	25	25	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.12	-3	-2	-1	19.5	15.2	4.28	13.8	16.0	-2.22
Travis Outlaw	63	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.34	4	-9	13	15.6	18.2	-2.60	16.3	13.4	2.97
Rudy Fernandez	46	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-8	11	16.0	16.8	-0.80	15.5	15.3	0.19
Jerryd Bayless	66	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.23	-2	-3	1	15.2	19.5	-4.28	16.0	13.8	2.22
Greg Oden	40	38	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	9	-23	17.5	15.6	1.89	15.1	15.7	-0.60
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-2	-1	16.3	17.1	-0.86	14.9	17.5	-2.55
Brandon Roy	76	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.33	-4	-1	-3	16.4	16.4	0.02	15.4	15.3	0.08

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	70	73	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.02	20	-15	35	15.4	15.2	0.19	16.6	15.8	0.80
Josh Howard	64	67	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.04	15	-10	25	14.8	17.0	-2.20	16.4	16.5	-0.06
Jason Kidd	63	65	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.09	11	-6	17	15.2	16.0	-0.80	16.8	15.5	1.34
Jason Terry	57	58	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	4	-3	15.8	14.8	0.97	16.0	17.2	-1.25
Brandon Bass	63	62	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.43	-4	9	-13	16.1	13.7	2.48	16.2	16.9	-0.70
Antoine Wright	59	57	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.39	-8	13	-21	15.7	14.7	1.00	16.9	15.6	1.28
Jose Juan Barea	28	27	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.21	-4	9	-13	15.5	15.4	0.09	15.0	17.0	-2.07
Erick Dampier	44	45	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	5	-5	15.0	15.7	-0.69	17.0	15.8	1.24
James Singleton	2	1	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.17	-6	11	-17	5.0	15.6	-10.64	5.0	16.5	-11.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.87,0.94,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.79,0.93,0.98,0.86,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 96, UTA 117	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.74,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%
DET 98, ATL 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.97,1,1	94.1%
TOR 90, POR 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.73,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.86,0.88,0.78,0.89,0.95,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.99,1	94.0%