NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	83		Excitement	3.4 [1130]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +15.2%
Cleveland Cavaliers	101		Comeback	1.0 [1263]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -13.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	15	59%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.11	0.00	0.07	19	63%	0.08	2	-0.03	8	87%	-0.00
Joey Graham	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.03	8	58%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jamario Moon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	2	17%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Will Solomon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roko Leni Ukic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	11	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Anthony Parker	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	7	28%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.17	-0.01	-0.04	9	11%	-0.08	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.00	-0.00	20	62%	0.22	3	-0.07	13	100%	0.04
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.06	0.05	11	72%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.01	0.03	10	62%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.03	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	16	50%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darnell Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.7	29.5	15.0	30.9	1.7	30.0	131.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +43.5%

CLE +7.0%

TOR -1.5%

TOR -1.4%

CLE +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CLE	NBA	TOR	CLE	NBA
this game	15.8	18.5	15.5	98.8	120.2	106.4
season	15.1	16.9		105.0	110.6
opponent	15.2	15.6		101.0	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.8	16.2	13.9	16.6	15.8
CLE	18.3	18.1	18.2	19.4	18.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Solomon	4	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-16	14	13.7	15.9	-2.15	20.3	18.4	1.91
Roko Leni Ukic	4	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-16	14	13.7	15.9	-2.15	20.3	18.4	1.91
Jason Kapono	40	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-19	20	14.9	16.6	-1.62	18.1	18.8	-0.69
Joey Graham	53	53	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.30	6	-24	30	15.3	16.6	-1.34	18.8	18.0	0.72
Jamario Moon	9	9	-0.14	-0.35	0.21	0.09	-8	-10	2	16.6	15.7	0.85	16.9	18.7	-1.79
Andrea Bargnani	58	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.18	-17	-1	-16	15.3	16.8	-1.52	18.0	19.7	-1.75
Anthony Parker	61	61	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	-6	-6	16.2	14.7	1.46	19.0	17.1	1.87
Jermaine O'Neal	63	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	-5	-8	16.3	14.2	2.08	19.0	16.8	2.20
Chris Bosh	67	67	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.05	-19	1	-20	16.0	14.9	1.07	18.7	17.7	0.98
Jose Calderon	61	60	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	0.17	-24	6	-30	16.2	14.7	1.52	17.8	20.2	-2.47

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	67	65	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.09	21	-3	24	18.6	17.9	0.69	16.5	13.5	3.00
LeBron James	68	66	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.17	23	-5	28	17.7	21.7	-3.95	15.8	15.6	0.24
Wally Szczerbiak	79	78	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.04	18	0	18	18.5	18.8	-0.33	15.7	17.2	-1.47
Ben Wallace	46	47	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.14	19	-1	20	18.3	18.8	-0.50	16.5	14.9	1.52
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	41	41	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.05	15	3	12	18.3	18.7	-0.43	15.9	15.7	0.11
Daniel Gibson	55	55	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	16	-14	19.0	17.6	1.43	15.9	15.7	0.22
Anderson Varejao	25	25	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.16	-4	22	-26	19.0	18.3	0.79	15.4	16.0	-0.57
Trey Johnson	3	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	16	-14	20.3	18.4	1.91	13.7	15.9	-2.15
Darnell Jackson	5	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	17	-16	20.4	18.4	2.03	12.7	16.0	-3.37
JJ Hickson	31	33	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.16	-7	25	-32	18.7	18.4	0.35	14.6	16.6	-2.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.94,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 92, NJN 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.0%
GSW 101, CLE 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.87,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
CHI 89, CLE 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.98,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	95.8%