NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	97		Excitement	5.6 [716]		MVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): +12.8%
New Orleans Hornets	89		Comeback	44.0 [11]		LVP	Brandon Roy (POR): -13.9%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Outlaw	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13	0.01	0.10	-0.02	11	67%	0.24	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.02	8	75%	0.18	3	-0.12	4	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07	0.13	-0.02	0.04	9	76%	0.15	1	-0.08	7	71%	-0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	21	48%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Greg Oden	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	62%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	0.01	0.02	10	27%	-0.07	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.01	7	79%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	4	67%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	11	43%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.08	0.01	17	49%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
David West	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.09	0.01	24	48%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	7	50%	-0.01	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.4	26.4	15.7	26.5	1.8	32.2	127.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +61.1%

NOH -6.6%

POR +25.5%

NOH -27.5%

NOH -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	NOH	NBA	POR	NOH	NBA
this game	15.7	17.8	15.5	111.5	104.7	106.4
season	16.7	16.6		111.0	105.9
opponent	15.6	16.0		106.0	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.5	17.6	15.9	12.9	15.7
NOH	21.6	18.4	15.4	16.6	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerryd Bayless	47	45	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.28	16	-8	24	14.4	17.3	-2.97	16.2	19.5	-3.28
Joel Przybilla	56	55	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.31	15	-7	22	15.0	17.0	-2.00	17.1	18.9	-1.81
Brandon Roy	69	69	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	2	4	16.2	14.2	1.99	17.9	17.1	0.87
Travis Outlaw	45	45	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.14	13	-5	18	14.5	17.0	-2.51	16.4	19.2	-2.81
LaMarcus Aldridge	77	74	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.37	1	7	-6	15.9	14.2	1.75	17.2	21.6	-4.45
Rudy Fernandez	59	57	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.16	11	-3	14	14.9	17.4	-2.48	16.9	19.4	-2.48
Sergio Rodriguez	30	30	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.01	-5	13	-18	17.4	14.9	2.47	21.4	15.8	5.67
Greg Oden	27	26	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.01	-6	14	-20	18.9	14.3	4.61	20.7	16.5	4.16
Nicolas Batum	25	24	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	0.05	-11	19	-30	16.8	15.3	1.53	20.1	16.8	3.29

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	46	47	0.49	-0.99	1.49	-0.06	19	-27	46	18.2	17.2	1.03	18.2	12.8	5.41
Hilton Armstrong	29	29	0.22	-0.72	0.93	-0.02	8	-16	24	20.1	16.6	3.55	16.9	15.2	1.78
Sean Marks	22	22	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.04	2	-10	12	17.2	18.0	-0.79	15.5	15.8	-0.39
Melvin Ely	14	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.15	-6	-2	-4	17.2	17.9	-0.66	16.1	15.7	0.47
Devin Brown	18	18	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.13	-7	-1	-6	19.8	17.2	2.55	15.7	15.8	-0.03
David West	75	78	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.33	-4	-4	0	17.2	21.8	-4.57	15.8	14.9	0.96
Rasual Butler	61	63	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.36	-5	-3	-2	17.5	18.5	-1.02	16.1	14.7	1.43
Peja Stojakovic	69	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.37	-6	-2	-4	18.0	16.8	1.17	15.6	16.5	-0.90
James Posey	52	54	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.31	-14	6	-20	17.0	19.0	-2.02	14.8	17.4	-2.60
Antonio Daniels	39	40	-0.99	0.49	-1.49	-0.20	-27	19	-46	17.2	18.2	-1.03	12.8	18.2	-5.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.77,0.64,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.28,0.14,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 105, IND 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.74,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.83,0.6,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.09,0.01,0	93.2%
NOH 76, HOU 73	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.74,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.1,0,0	92.7%
SEA 84, LAC 78	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.85,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.94,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.76,0.68,0.53,0.6,0.47,0.31,0.36,0.14,0.16,0	92.6%