NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	9.4 [102]		MVP	Shawn Marion (MIA): +30.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	96		Comeback	5.0 [248]		LVP	Michael Beasley (MIA): -29.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.31	0.07	0.23	-0.00	9	67%	0.32	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.14
Yakhouba Diawara	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	4	100%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	11	65%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Quinn	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	3	70%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Dwyane Wade	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.06,0.06	0.13	-0.04	0.02	15	67%	0.41	4	-0.35	16	81%	0.06
James Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.09	0.00	9	18%	-0.15	1	-0.06	4	50%	-0.06
Michael Beasley	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.28,-0.29	-0.07	-0.22	-0.00	14	44%	-0.07	3	-0.22	4	50%	-0.06

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.45,0.23	0.23	0.16	0.08	0.01	21	69%	0.30	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.01	8	61%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.03	-0.10	0.00	13	58%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	7	24%	-0.12	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.12	-0.01	7	64%	0.10	5	-0.27	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	0.00	7	50%	-0.02	3	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.28	-0.28	-0.12	-0.16	-0.00	14	30%	-0.09	2	-0.19	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.7	28.3	15.8	26.2	2.4	36.1	137.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN -3.2%

MIA +52.2%

MIA +0.2%

MIA +4.0%

MIN -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	15.5	108.8	103.2	106.4
season	16.0	15.8		105.9	104.3
opponent	15.1	15.7		109.2	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.2	16.8	15.4	14.0	15.6
MIN	15.1	13.4	17.4	17.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	78	77	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.53	13	-10	23	15.8	14.5	1.31	15.5	16.6	-1.02
Dwyane Wade	78	81	0.48	0.01	0.47	0.28	7	-4	11	15.2	17.6	-2.37	15.3	18.2	-2.90
Chris Quinn	33	34	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	-2	7	15.0	15.9	-0.91	17.6	14.6	2.99
Yakhouba Diawara	28	29	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	-8	19	15.8	15.5	0.35	16.6	15.3	1.21
Shawn Marion	71	75	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.25	6	-3	9	15.5	15.9	-0.47	15.6	16.1	-0.42
Michael Beasley	45	46	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.58	-7	10	-17	14.2	17.0	-2.82	16.0	15.4	0.55
Joel Anthony	25	25	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	3	-3	17.4	14.9	2.45	15.9	15.7	0.22
Jamaal Magloire	5	6	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	6	-9	13.8	15.7	-1.89	15.0	15.8	-0.77
Mario Chalmers	57	56	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.22	3	0	3	16.8	13.5	3.32	15.4	16.1	-0.69
James Jones	14	14	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.09	-10	13	-23	15.6	15.6	0.07	12.6	16.3	-3.62
Daequan Cook	21	22	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.08	-10	13	-23	15.0	15.7	-0.70	16.0	15.6	0.43

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Smith	35	36	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.08	-3	0	-3	16.3	15.4	0.86	16.9	14.7	2.21
Kevin Love	49	46	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.11	1	-4	5	15.1	16.4	-1.31	15.6	15.5	0.10
Brian Cardinal	35	34	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.22	3	-6	9	17.5	14.7	2.83	14.5	16.2	-1.73
Mike Miller	54	52	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.21	-1	-2	1	15.4	16.2	-0.79	15.1	16.3	-1.18
Al Jefferson	60	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.14	-5	2	-7	15.2	16.6	-1.37	15.9	15.0	0.88
Ryan Gomes	40	39	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	0	-3	15.9	15.6	0.36	16.3	15.1	1.18
Randy Foye	74	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.41	0	-3	3	15.8	15.4	0.44	15.3	16.7	-1.42
Sebastian Telfair	55	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	3	-9	15.9	15.4	0.51	16.1	14.8	1.24
Rodney Carney	63	60	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.45	-1	-2	1	15.3	16.7	-1.45	14.9	16.8	-1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.62,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.65,0.83,0.69,0.45,0.33,0.69,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 102, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.66,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.6,0.53,0.64,0.55,0.58,0	90.1%
MIL 109, SAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.68,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.83,0.62,0.45,0.16,0.42,0	89.9%
POR 81, ORL 79	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.6,0.64,0.81,0.87,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.53,0	89.6%