NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	8.8 [114]		MVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): +44.8%
San Antonio Spurs	96		Comeback	4.0 [51]		LVP	Sean Elliott (SAS): -32.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.45	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.45	0.17	0.31	0.03	15	78%	0.45	1	-0.01	6	83%	-0.01
George McCloud	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	12	52%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.08,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	17	47%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.03
Mark Strickland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Keon Clark	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Robert Pack	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	-0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	10	36%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.06	-0.11	0.01	16	47%	-0.09	2	-0.09	8	87%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.10	0.01	6	55%	0.08	0	0.00	8	87%	0.06
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.00	4	100%	0.17	2	-0.09	1	0%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	14	57%	0.15	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	55%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	57%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
David Robinson	0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.08	0.01	16	59%	-0.00	6	-0.16	7	43%	-0.04
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17	-0.17	-0.02	-0.13	0.02	12	46%	-0.13	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.28,-0.33	-0.33	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	11	18%	-0.25	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	27.2	15.4	26.6	2.4	35.5	135.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +28.0%

DEN +16.4%

DEN +4.1%

DEN +6.7%

SAS -5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.3	14.9	15.5	104.1	97.0	100.9
season	15.2	15.9		101.4	103.4
opponent	15.5	15.2		96.5	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.3	14.7	14.7	16.0	14.3
SAS	14.4	15.9	13.0	16.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	79	80	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.29	11	-5	16	14.6	13.1	1.50	15.3	13.3	1.98
Voshon Lenard	63	65	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.10	13	-7	20	14.0	14.8	-0.75	14.6	15.4	-0.80
Nick Van Exel	77	75	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.25	6	0	6	14.6	13.4	1.13	15.0	14.5	0.50
Antonio McDyess	78	78	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.24	6	0	6	14.0	15.4	-1.42	14.7	15.9	-1.25
George McCloud	40	40	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.44	-2	8	-10	15.2	13.7	1.54	14.8	15.0	-0.20
James Posey	54	55	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.12	8	-2	10	14.3	14.3	-0.04	14.6	15.3	-0.72
Keon Clark	32	32	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.05	2	4	-2	14.0	14.5	-0.42	14.8	15.0	-0.20
Ryan Bowen	32	32	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.21	-4	10	-14	14.5	14.2	0.23	15.9	14.5	1.41
Robert Pack	28	30	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.10	-3	9	-12	12.8	14.9	-2.09	14.9	14.9	0.02
Mark Strickland	7	8	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	13	-20	15.6	14.2	1.35	14.2	15.0	-0.73

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Ferry	48	47	0.47	-0.97	1.43	0.06	14	-20	34	14.9	14.9	0.04	14.7	13.9	0.82
Terry Porter	26	24	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-10	14	15.8	14.6	1.15	14.5	14.3	0.24
Steve Kerr	32	32	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-8	10	16.6	14.1	2.52	12.9	15.0	-2.05
Malik Rose	52	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	0	-6	15.6	14.2	1.39	13.9	14.8	-0.89
David Robinson	77	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-7	8	13.9	18.4	-4.49	14.0	15.3	-1.35
Antonio Daniels	77	78	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	1	-8	14.2	17.5	-3.38	14.5	13.6	0.90
Derek Anderson	63	62	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	5	-16	14.6	15.4	-0.83	14.7	13.6	1.11
Tim Duncan	69	71	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.37	-7	1	-8	15.5	13.5	2.04	15.0	12.6	2.33
Sean Elliott	51	51	-0.97	0.47	-1.43	-0.38	-20	14	-34	14.9	14.9	-0.04	13.9	14.7	-0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.66,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.6,0.53,0.64,0.55,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 91, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.66,0.57,0.58,0	92.6%
CLE 98, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.34,0.3,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.58,0	91.8%
SAS 96, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.68,0.42,0	91.5%