NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	81		Excitement	6.3 [551]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +16.8%
Houston Rockets	85		Comeback	1.1 [1061]		LVP	Aaron Brooks (HOU): -23.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	8	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Redd	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	13	62%	0.12	3	-0.08	6	83%	-0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	12	46%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.1,-0.1	0.05	-0.12	0.02	9	83%	0.13	4	-0.22	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.07	-0.03	0.02	14	50%	0.01	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Charlie Villanueva	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	6	7%	-0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.12	0.01	18	55%	0.20	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.11	-0.02	12	50%	0.19	1	-0.05	6	50%	0.02
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	6	82%	0.16	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	7	61%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Brent Barry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	0.03	8	40%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	10	32%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.17
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.26,-0.23	-0.23	-0.14	-0.10	-0.01	12	29%	-0.15	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.0	29.2	15.7	21.5	1.6	37.4	131.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +10.1%

HOU +13.5%

HOU +2.9%

HOU +21.7%

HOU +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	HOU	NBA	MIL	HOU	NBA
this game	15.5	16.3	15.5	91.0	92.4	106.4
season	15.0	16.3		104.9	105.9
opponent	15.2	15.6		102.7	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.8	16.0	15.6	14.8	15.5
HOU	15.5	19.0	16.3	14.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	14	15	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-7	10	14.9	15.7	-0.81	16.3	16.3	0.07
Luc Mbah a Moute	33	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.16	5	-9	14	16.0	15.3	0.68	17.7	15.4	2.32
Luke Ridnour	64	66	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.39	11	-15	26	15.1	16.6	-1.47	16.4	16.0	0.38
Francisco Elson	8	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	0	-4	15.9	15.5	0.37	18.0	16.1	1.92
Michael Redd	60	63	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.32	7	-11	18	15.3	16.0	-0.68	15.9	17.2	-1.32
Ramon Sessions	19	19	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	1	-6	15.2	15.6	-0.42	17.2	16.0	1.12
Tyronn Lue	21	21	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	2	-8	16.1	15.4	0.73	16.3	16.3	0.02
Andrew Bogut	71	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	2	-8	16.1	13.3	2.83	17.1	13.2	3.86
Charlie Villanueva	30	30	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.10	-11	7	-18	14.9	15.8	-0.91	13.3	17.7	-4.46
Richard Jefferson	68	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.25	-8	4	-12	15.8	14.8	1.02	16.2	16.4	-0.14
Charlie Bell	57	59	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.35	-6	2	-8	15.3	15.9	-0.57	15.8	17.2	-1.42

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	61	58	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.33	10	-6	16	16.0	16.7	-0.71	15.6	15.5	0.04
Carl Landry	42	40	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.04	18	-14	32	16.8	15.9	0.90	16.8	14.5	2.34
Tracy McGrady	80	78	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.41	-2	6	-8	15.7	20.2	-4.48	15.3	17.0	-1.67
Aaron Brooks	77	75	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	5	-6	16.7	14.2	2.48	15.4	16.2	-0.80
Luis Scola	63	62	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.18	5	-1	6	15.6	17.7	-2.07	16.0	14.6	1.41
Brent Barry	15	13	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	-1	6	16.5	16.2	0.23	15.3	15.6	-0.27
Rafer Alston	67	64	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.32	-7	11	-18	15.6	18.0	-2.37	14.8	17.3	-2.48
Yao Ming	55	55	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.25	-8	12	-20	17.9	13.8	4.12	15.4	15.7	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.69,0.79,0.67,0.57,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 91, DAL 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.78,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.83,0.81,0.9,0.68,0.74,1	92.3%
PHX 112, HOU 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.67,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.71,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.78,0.85,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.75,0.89,0.68,0.74,1	92.1%
ATL 82, DEN 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.79,0.67,0.84,1	91.0%