NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	100		Excitement	7.3 [373]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +26.4%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	2.4 [227]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -30.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0.25	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.25	0.09	0.17	0.01	13	71%	0.29	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Charlie Bell	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.19	0.09	0.10	-0.00	7	79%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.03	0.01	15	68%	0.19	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.05	0.08	-0.04	-0.01	19	54%	0.05	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Ramon Sessions	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.13	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	8	44%	-0.00	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.21	0.06	0.00	10	100%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.10	0.00	10	71%	0.21	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.01	9	65%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ime Udoka	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.06	0.02	12	59%	0.06	2	-0.10	8	75%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.16,-0.31	-0.31	-0.07	-0.23	0.01	20	42%	-0.15	3	-0.16	12	67%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.6	28.7	15.0	25.4	2.5	36.4	134.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +29.5%

MIL +1.6%

MIL +11.9%

SAS -2.1%

MIL +9.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAS	NBA	MIL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.9	15.4	15.5	108.7	106.5	106.4
season	15.0	16.4		104.9	106.6
opponent	15.7	15.6		103.2	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.7	15.2	16.5	18.3	15.9
SAS	17.7	14.2	15.5	14.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	69	69	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.58	8	-6	14	15.1	18.2	-3.10	15.1	16.4	-1.36
Michael Redd	84	83	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.38	9	-7	16	15.8	17.0	-1.21	16.0	9.6	6.49
Andrew Bogut	83	82	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	-2	6	16.1	14.0	2.10	16.1	9.8	6.30
Luke Ridnour	76	76	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.42	4	-2	6	16.4	13.3	3.12	15.9	12.9	3.07
Charlie Bell	49	49	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.41	-5	7	-12	17.1	14.5	2.59	14.0	17.1	-3.11
Luc Mbah a Moute	35	34	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	-3	8	15.2	16.3	-1.07	17.6	14.1	3.50
Ramon Sessions	20	21	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	1	0	13.6	16.5	-2.93	14.1	15.8	-1.71
Dan Gadzuric	9	10	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	4	-6	14.0	16.1	-2.10	9.8	16.1	-6.30
Charlie Villanueva	35	36	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	-0.04	-14	16	-30	16.8	15.4	1.42	14.1	16.2	-2.09

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	22	21	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.11	9	-11	20	12.2	16.4	-4.19	17.6	15.4	2.18
Anthony Tolliver	13	14	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.11	5	-7	12	16.5	15.2	1.31	14.4	16.2	-1.73
Ime Udoka	18	17	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-5	8	14.2	15.7	-1.48	19.3	15.1	4.17
Kurt Thomas	21	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	0	-2	17.0	15.0	1.99	14.5	16.4	-1.88
Matt Bonner	37	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.05	-6	4	-10	15.6	15.3	0.30	14.6	16.7	-2.04
Bruce Bowen	31	29	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.03	-7	5	-12	14.6	15.8	-1.26	15.5	16.1	-0.60
Manu Ginobili	47	49	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.53	12	-14	26	14.6	16.2	-1.63	17.4	14.2	3.20
Roger Mason Jr.	63	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-3	4	16.0	14.0	2.01	15.8	16.1	-0.26
Tim Duncan	71	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-2	2	15.0	17.0	-1.99	16.4	14.5	1.88
Tony Parker	70	71	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.33	-11	9	-20	16.4	12.2	4.19	15.4	17.6	-2.18
Michael Finley	67	67	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.29	-14	12	-26	15.8	14.5	1.28	15.1	17.9	-2.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.28,0.29,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 107, ATL 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.12,0.28,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.32,0.32,0.53,0.33,0.38,0.46,0.22,0.27,0	92.5%
DET 91, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.4,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.14,0.09,0	92.3%
TOR 84, DEN 80	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.25,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.22,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.4,0.31,0.55,0.34,0.27,0	92.1%