NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	88		Excitement	6.6 [485]		MVP	Marvin Williams (ATL): +13.5%
Atlanta Hawks	99		Comeback	2.3 [997]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -19.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	19	62%	0.21	3	-0.11	7	86%	0.01
Jeff Green	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	-0.02	-0.03	17	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Wilcox	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	14	59%	0.14	4	-0.14	4	75%	0.01
Robert Swift	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Damien Wilkins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.00	-0.04	0.04	8	44%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Earl Watson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	8	12%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	8	11%	-0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2	-0.10	-0.04	0.05	14	37%	-0.13	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.04	0.04	13	70%	0.13	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.06	0.00	11	61%	0.18	3	-0.09	9	67%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	4	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.05	0.07	-0.02	23	42%	0.12	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	13	52%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randolph Morris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	7	37%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	3	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	30.7	15.8	27.3	2.7	34.0	136.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +52.6%

ATL +5.0%

OKC -16.7%

ATL +8.8%

ATL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	ATL	NBA	OKC	ATL	NBA
this game	16.4	16.1	15.5	97.8	113.8	106.4
season	14.9	15.8		100.5	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.1		106.0	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	16.8	17.0	17.1	14.9	16.4
ATL	15.9	15.7	16.4	16.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wilcox	44	43	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.18	7	-18	25	16.5	16.4	0.09	17.0	15.2	1.86
Robert Swift	10	10	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-12	13	13.7	16.8	-3.08	16.7	16.0	0.67
Damien Wilkins	20	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.13	3	-14	17	16.7	16.3	0.41	17.7	15.6	2.12
Earl Watson	38	37	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-13	15	16.2	16.6	-0.39	17.8	14.9	2.88
Jeff Green	79	77	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.08	-7	-4	-3	16.6	15.5	1.01	15.9	17.7	-1.80
Desmond Mason	64	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.05	-10	-1	-9	16.3	16.7	-0.36	15.4	17.8	-2.32
Joe Smith	46	44	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.00	-18	7	-25	16.4	16.5	-0.09	15.2	17.0	-1.86
Russell Westbrook	72	69	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.17	-15	4	-19	16.7	15.4	1.24	15.8	17.4	-1.69
Kevin Durant	77	72	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.11	-18	7	-25	16.5	15.8	0.78	15.8	17.4	-1.57

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	70	73	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.17	20	-9	29	15.9	16.9	-1.04	17.0	14.2	2.78
Mike Bibby	67	69	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.15	16	-5	21	15.5	18.2	-2.72	17.2	13.8	3.42
Joe Johnson	72	74	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.18	14	-3	17	16.3	15.3	1.01	16.7	15.2	1.52
Al Horford	57	59	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.03	12	-1	13	15.8	16.7	-0.91	16.9	15.5	1.35
Marvin Williams	72	75	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	8	-5	16.3	15.1	1.25	16.4	16.6	-0.20
Ronald Murray	31	32	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	12	-13	17.7	15.2	2.45	15.9	16.7	-0.87
Zaza Pachulia	31	31	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.22	-3	14	-17	17.6	15.2	2.40	16.3	16.5	-0.27
Randolph Morris	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	10.3	16.3	-5.98	8.3	16.7	-8.38
Mario West	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	10.3	16.3	-5.98	8.3	16.7	-8.38
Acie Law	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	10.3	16.3	-5.98	8.3	16.7	-8.38
Solomon Jones	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	3.5	16.4	-12.90	5.0	16.7	-11.69
Maurice Evans	24	26	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.08	-6	17	-23	17.2	15.7	1.53	15.7	16.7	-1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.69,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.7,0.86,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.76,0.9,0.85,0.79,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 70, PHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.95,1	93.7%
IND 105, SAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.41,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.7,0.84,0.77,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.9,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.99,0.98,1	93.3%
ORL 90, MIL 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.71,0.68,0.63,0.73,0.78,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.87,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.94,1,1	93.0%