NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	105		Excitement	8.2 [208]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +37.0%
Denver Nuggets	101		Comeback	3.5 [272]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): -21.4%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.3	0.04	0.26	-0.01	6	62%	0.32	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Chris Paul	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.08,0.33,0.33,0.3	0.08	0.21	-0.01	13	69%	0.40	3	-0.10	6	100%	0.07
Peja Stojakovic	0.25	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.24,0.25	0.07	0.19	0.01	11	68%	0.29	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Rasual Butler	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.21	-0.01	0.03	8	106%	0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Sean Marks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0	-0.04	0.04	0.01	16	42%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	100%	0.06	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Julian Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Melvin Ely	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	8	40%	-0.02	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.37	0.37	0.10	0.26	-0.01	13	71%	0.47	4	-0.10	8	87%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.33	0.33	0.19	0.14	0.01	21	73%	0.36	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.04
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.09	-0.00	7	50%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Nene	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.07	0.01	4	64%	0.12	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	12	43%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.09	-0.15	-0.02	7	43%	-0.10	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	3.7	31.2	19.6	29.1	3.3	39.7	153.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +21.8%

NOH +9.3%

NOH +12.8%

NOH +2.9%

NOH +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DEN	NBA	NOH	DEN	NBA
this game	17.8	13.7	15.5	115.4	109.8	106.4
season	16.6	14.4		105.9	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.2	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	15.1	18.9	19.5	18.0	17.8
DEN	14.3	13.8	13.3	13.3	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	75	77	1.02	-0.52	1.54	0.41	21	-17	38	17.7	18.4	-0.67	14.1	11.3	2.80
Peja Stojakovic	60	61	0.94	-0.44	1.39	0.50	15	-11	26	18.6	16.3	2.28	14.7	11.6	3.06
David West	83	83	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-6	16	18.2	14.2	3.92	13.7	13.0	0.75
James Posey	58	59	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	4	-4	17.4	18.6	-1.23	13.3	14.4	-1.08
Rasual Butler	63	61	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.42	-7	11	-18	18.5	16.3	2.17	14.2	12.7	1.45
Hilton Armstrong	20	21	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	-2	8	18.5	17.6	0.87	16.2	12.9	3.32
Melvin Ely	28	27	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.03	-2	6	-8	16.5	18.4	-1.91	12.6	14.1	-1.58
Julian Wright	11	11	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.07	-8	12	-20	15.0	18.2	-3.21	12.0	13.9	-1.90
Devin Brown	44	46	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	-0.06	-6	10	-16	17.1	18.5	-1.46	12.3	15.1	-2.83
Sean Marks	13	14	-0.38	0.88	-1.27	-0.12	-9	13	-22	18.2	17.8	0.47	10.0	14.3	-4.33

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	43	42	0.46	-0.96	1.43	-0.00	16	-20	36	12.9	14.3	-1.40	17.0	18.6	-1.57
Chris Andersen	46	43	0.40	-0.90	1.30	0.02	13	-17	30	13.2	14.1	-0.91	18.2	17.5	0.64
Linas Kleiza	42	41	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.17	2	-6	8	12.6	14.6	-2.03	18.0	17.7	0.28
J.R. Smith	64	61	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.31	5	-9	14	13.3	14.6	-1.34	17.6	18.3	-0.76
Dahntay Jones	23	24	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.02	-10	6	-16	15.0	13.2	1.77	18.4	17.6	0.75
Nene	46	47	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.58	1	-5	6	14.5	12.9	1.61	18.4	17.2	1.20
Carmelo Anthony	69	69	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.39	-10	6	-16	13.5	14.2	-0.67	17.7	18.2	-0.53
Chauncey Billups	62	63	-0.92	0.42	-1.35	-0.40	-18	14	-32	14.1	12.7	1.45	18.3	16.9	1.40
Kenyon Martin	65	65	-1.00	0.50	-1.50	-0.44	-19	15	-34	14.3	12.2	2.11	17.4	18.9	-1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.43,0.63,0.74,0.7,0.72,0.69,0.72,0.57,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 114, DEN 111	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.39,0.46,0.36,0.3,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.2,0.24,0.44,0.44,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.59,0.71,0.6,0.75,0.64,0.69,0.17,0	89.6%
SEA 108, DEN 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.19,0.27,0.18,0.29,0.3,0.21,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.42,0	89.2%
MEM 90, NYK 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.45,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.3,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.66,0.82,0.76,0.84,0.47,0.17,0	89.1%