NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	94		Excitement	4.1 [996]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +11.1%
Memphis Grizzlies	81		Comeback	1.0 [842]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -13.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	4	86%	0.14	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
George Hill	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	14	57%	0.11	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.01	0.04	4	112%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.01	-0.02	12	72%	0.13	5	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ime Udoka	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	8	39%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Fabricio Oberto	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	18	36%	-0.07	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	57%	0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Darrell Arthur	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	7	53%	0.01	4	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	9	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.02	0.07	21	55%	-0.01	3	-0.04	5	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.01	19	34%	-0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.0	30.2	15.7	30.2	2.7	29.0	131.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +54.1%

SAS +5.7%

MEM -5.6%

MEM -5.4%

SAS +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	16.8	15.6	15.5	105.6	91.0	106.4
season	16.4	16.1		106.6	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.7		107.6	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.7	15.0	13.1	23.5	16.8
MEM	18.5	13.8	17.4	12.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	54	53	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	4	5	16.7	16.9	-0.17	14.8	16.7	-1.87
Ime Udoka	20	22	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.22	5	8	-3	15.5	17.2	-1.69	15.7	15.5	0.17
Roger Mason Jr.	71	72	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.06	14	-1	15	17.1	15.7	1.36	15.7	15.1	0.54
Michael Finley	57	56	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.00	12	1	11	17.7	15.2	2.48	16.3	14.3	1.93
Tim Duncan	59	57	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.06	8	5	3	15.9	18.5	-2.60	15.9	14.9	1.05
Fabricio Oberto	35	35	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.15	14	-1	15	17.9	16.1	1.73	17.5	14.3	3.24
Bruce Bowen	59	58	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.01	8	5	3	16.1	18.1	-2.00	15.6	15.5	0.00
Matt Bonner	28	27	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.11	11	2	9	17.2	16.6	0.54	15.4	15.6	-0.21
Manu Ginobili	22	22	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.05	3	10	-7	14.8	17.5	-2.70	15.8	15.5	0.30
Jacque Vaughn	13	14	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.19	-6	19	-25	21.4	16.0	5.36	12.3	16.2	-3.87
Kurt Thomas	18	20	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.22	-8	21	-29	17.0	16.8	0.24	13.7	16.1	-2.39
Anthony Tolliver	9	9	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	18	-23	15.2	17.0	-1.77	13.4	15.8	-2.34

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hakim Warrick	14	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-12	11	13.6	15.9	-2.35	15.5	17.1	-1.55
Quinton Ross	42	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-15	17	14.0	16.9	-2.89	18.1	15.7	2.34
Darko Milicic	57	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-17	21	15.1	16.4	-1.29	17.1	16.2	0.87
Marc Gasol	51	52	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	-5	-3	16.4	14.4	1.97	16.5	17.2	-0.65
Kyle Lowry	33	33	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.11	-12	-1	-11	16.4	15.1	1.34	16.3	17.1	-0.80
Mike Conley	56	56	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.22	-1	-12	11	15.1	16.4	-1.34	17.1	16.3	0.80
Greg Buckner	14	14	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.07	-13	0	-13	18.7	15.0	3.75	15.4	17.1	-1.64
Darrell Arthur	22	21	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	3	-19	17.4	14.9	2.47	16.4	16.9	-0.50
Rudy Gay	76	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.18	-8	-5	-3	15.6	15.5	0.01	16.2	20.3	-4.13
O.J. Mayo	80	80	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	-1	-11	15.4	16.7	-1.24	17.3	12.4	4.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.14,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 91, POR 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0	95.1%
SAS 97, VAN 79	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.1%
IND 109, WAS 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.35,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%