NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	107		Excitement	6.3 [561]		MVP	Carl Landry (HOU): +15.2%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	1.1 [915]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -26.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Landry	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.08	-0.00	8	65%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Yao Ming	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.06	-0.00	15	68%	0.25	4	-0.10	11	91%	0.05
Metta World Peace	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.01	0.05	15	57%	0.08	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Brent Barry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	9	41%	0.01	1	-0.03	9	78%	-0.01
Aaron Brooks	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	79%	0.12	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	15	47%	-0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.02	0.00	6	80%	0.13	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.06
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.17	-0.01	0.04	13	70%	0.12	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.02
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Shawn Marion	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	14	53%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	5	30%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	16	41%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.12,-0.16,-0.22,-0.26,-0.27,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.13	-0.12	0.01	23	42%	-0.09	5	-0.17	9	89%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	28.6	16.4	29.0	2.5	30.3	133.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +30.6%

HOU +21.3%

HOU +17.0%

MIA -23.3%

HOU +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	16.3	13.7	15.5	112.6	101.0	106.4
season	16.3	16.0		105.9	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.2		105.7	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.3	15.0	16.9	17.2	16.3
MIA	15.0	14.4	13.3	12.1	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	62	63	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.15	13	-4	17	15.9	17.1	-1.13	14.4	12.4	1.99
Luis Scola	60	62	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.09	12	-3	15	15.9	17.1	-1.25	13.6	13.9	-0.29
Yao Ming	72	73	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.09	11	-2	13	16.3	16.3	-0.03	13.6	13.9	-0.23
Rafer Alston	65	67	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.15	7	2	5	16.0	17.1	-1.13	13.7	13.6	0.15
Metta World Peace	75	78	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	5	-1	16.1	17.0	-0.85	13.2	15.9	-2.73
Brent Barry	53	53	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.18	1	8	-7	17.0	15.4	1.61	13.7	13.7	-0.09
Carl Landry	44	45	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.24	-3	12	-15	16.8	15.9	0.92	13.9	13.5	0.43
Aaron Brooks	30	30	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	7	-5	17.1	16.0	1.13	13.6	13.7	-0.15
Charles Hayes	14	14	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.04	-2	11	-13	16.8	16.2	0.54	13.7	13.7	0.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yakhouba Diawara	45	44	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.17	5	-14	19	13.6	13.8	-0.27	16.9	15.8	1.13
Michael Beasley	61	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-7	5	13.3	14.4	-1.18	15.8	17.1	-1.24
Dwyane Wade	77	74	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.17	-2	-7	5	13.3	15.1	-1.76	16.0	17.6	-1.66
Chris Quinn	20	20	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-4	-1	15.2	13.3	1.89	18.0	15.9	2.18
Mario Chalmers	77	75	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-5	1	13.3	15.2	-1.89	15.9	18.0	-2.18
Daequan Cook	20	21	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	-2	-5	15.1	13.3	1.76	17.6	16.0	1.66
Joel Anthony	54	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-7	5	13.9	13.5	0.38	16.8	15.7	1.17
Udonis Haslem	49	47	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.02	-14	5	-19	13.5	13.9	-0.47	15.6	17.0	-1.40
Shawn Marion	82	82	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.18	-14	5	-19	14.1	11.3	2.80	16.4	15.8	0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.28,0.3,0.15,0.12,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.27,0.18,0.19,0.04,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 111, PHI 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.32,0.22,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.07,0.01,0,0	93.3%
IND 98, ORL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.18,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.05,0.03,0,0	93.2%
ATL 99, PHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.3,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.15,0.04,0.01,0.02,0	93.1%