NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	90		Excitement	2.4 [1253]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +11.6%
Los Angeles Lakers	104		Comeback	1.0 [1203]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -16.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.03	12	58%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Nene	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	12	60%	0.04	2	-0.03	6	67%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	4	40%	0.01	1	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Renaldo Balkman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	12	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	12	64%	0.01	5	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	9	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.18	-0.00	-0.02	19	26%	-0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.18	0.01	0.07	18	71%	0.13	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.03	9	68%	0.08	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.02	7	72%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	9	39%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	9	55%	0.02	2	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.05	6	69%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.00
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.12	0.00	-0.11	11	23%	-0.02	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	4	37%	0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.5	27.6	16.4	28.2	2.6	29.6	133.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +32.2%

LAL +2.3%

LAL +8.1%

LAL +5.7%

LAL +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	14.8	15.6	15.5	95.7	109.5	106.4
season	14.4	14.9		109.5	110.6
opponent	15.4	15.7		102.6	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.7	14.5	14.3	13.9	14.8
LAL	16.0	13.2	15.7	18.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Atkins	10	12	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.19	7	-21	28	14.5	14.9	-0.37	12.6	16.1	-3.50
Renaldo Balkman	25	26	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-13	12	14.5	14.9	-0.42	16.6	15.3	1.34
Dahntay Jones	33	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-11	8	15.1	14.7	0.36	16.3	15.3	1.06
Anthony Carter	40	38	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-9	4	14.3	15.2	-0.97	16.7	14.9	1.78
Linas Kleiza	47	47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	-4	-6	13.3	16.4	-3.06	15.5	15.8	-0.30
J.R. Smith	57	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-4	-6	14.0	16.1	-2.11	15.6	15.6	0.02
Carmelo Anthony	60	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.06	-13	-1	-12	15.6	13.5	2.13	15.0	16.7	-1.74
Kenyon Martin	68	70	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.16	-6	-8	2	15.4	13.3	2.16	16.3	13.9	2.39
Nene	66	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.06	-15	1	-16	15.4	13.5	1.84	15.1	16.9	-1.76
Chauncey Billups	64	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.01	-14	0	-14	15.2	14.1	1.07	15.4	16.2	-0.77

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Ariza	63	63	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.07	18	-4	22	15.5	15.9	-0.35	14.3	15.9	-1.55
Andrew Bynum	59	60	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.12	19	-5	24	15.5	15.8	-0.31	14.1	16.1	-1.97
Lamar Odom	39	38	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.10	15	-1	16	15.3	15.9	-0.52	13.8	15.6	-1.79
Kobe Bryant	57	57	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.05	13	1	12	15.1	16.5	-1.39	15.8	13.3	2.48
Jordan Farmar	51	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.07	8	6	2	15.8	15.4	0.43	13.9	15.9	-1.99
Pau Gasol	52	52	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	7	0	15.6	15.7	-0.14	15.9	13.5	2.49
Derek Fisher	44	42	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	8	-2	15.4	15.8	-0.43	15.9	13.9	1.99
Sasha Vujacic	37	36	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	10	-6	16.1	15.3	0.76	13.2	15.9	-2.70
Vladimir Radmanovic	32	31	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	18	-22	15.9	15.5	0.35	15.9	14.3	1.55
Luke Walton	14	13	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.15	-5	19	-24	17.6	15.3	2.26	15.3	14.8	0.55
Chris Mihm	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.15	-5	19	-24	21.0	15.1	5.85	16.2	14.7	1.55
Josh Powell	19	18	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	20	-26	13.9	16.1	-2.18	15.5	14.7	0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 74, SAS 109	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
DAL 96, SAS 119	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
CLE 95, MIN 124	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.69,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%