NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	100		Excitement	4.3 [971]		MVP	Luis Scola (HOU): +9.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder	89		Comeback	1.4 [1090]		LVP	Earl Watson (OKC): -15.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luis Scola	0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.00	-0.03	20	53%	0.11	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Yao Ming	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	8	86%	0.16	4	-0.07	6	83%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	15	52%	0.09	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Von Wafer	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	13	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	5	57%	0.04	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	7	59%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.04	23	59%	0.11	4	-0.09	3	67%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	14	47%	0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Robert Swift	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	4	38%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	14	41%	-0.01	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	6	14%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.02	0.01	6	21%	-0.08	3	-0.08	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.0	27.0	14.8	28.2	2.0	30.4	129.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +43.8%

HOU +3.3%

HOU +6.4%

OKC -2.0%

OKC -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	OKC	NBA	HOU	OKC	NBA
this game	15.9	14.2	15.5	104.2	93.7	106.4
season	16.3	14.9		105.9	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.2		106.6	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.4	14.5	15.7	18.5	15.9
OKC	13.4	13.8	16.3	13.7	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	75	77	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.06	17	-6	23	16.3	14.7	1.63	14.1	14.8	-0.77
Yao Ming	64	64	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.14	23	-12	35	16.4	15.1	1.27	14.8	12.9	1.89
Luis Scola	68	68	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.12	11	0	11	15.7	16.5	-0.84	14.1	14.4	-0.33
Rafer Alston	62	61	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.11	11	0	11	15.9	16.0	-0.05	14.1	14.4	-0.22
Tracy McGrady	37	37	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.07	10	1	9	14.6	16.8	-2.19	14.3	14.1	0.19
Von Wafer	38	35	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.19	0	11	-11	15.9	16.0	-0.11	14.5	14.1	0.39
Aaron Brooks	42	41	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.21	-5	16	-21	16.0	15.9	0.07	13.3	14.9	-1.61
Charles Hayes	35	35	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.26	-7	18	-25	16.7	15.5	1.27	12.0	15.5	-3.50
Brent Barry	34	34	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	11	-11	16.7	15.5	1.14	15.4	13.5	1.87
Carl Landry	25	23	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.11	-5	16	-21	14.4	16.5	-2.08	16.1	13.6	2.53

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damien Wilkins	30	30	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.11	5	-16	21	16.3	13.3	3.01	14.8	16.4	-1.61
Joe Smith	46	49	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.30	8	-19	27	14.3	14.1	0.14	14.6	17.3	-2.71
Russell Westbrook	56	55	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.16	2	-13	15	14.3	14.1	0.23	16.2	15.6	0.61
Johan Petro	40	40	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-10	9	14.8	13.8	0.97	14.7	16.8	-2.08
Robert Swift	48	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.05	-15	4	-19	14.6	13.8	0.84	16.9	14.9	2.00
Earl Watson	50	52	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.12	-10	-1	-9	13.0	15.5	-2.51	15.8	16.1	-0.33
Nick Collison	49	47	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.12	-19	8	-27	14.1	14.3	-0.14	17.3	14.6	2.71
Jeff Green	80	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.22	-9	-2	-7	13.6	17.4	-3.79	16.1	14.8	1.26
Kevin Durant	76	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.06	-16	5	-21	14.2	14.3	-0.13	16.1	15.3	0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 101, VAN 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
UTA 103, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
UTA 101, MIN 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.42,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%