NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	78		Excitement	5.9 [652]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +29.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	82		Comeback	7.0 [210]		LVP	George Hill (SAS): -11.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.29	0.16	0.13	-0.01	12	79%	0.29	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ime Udoka	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	10	45%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	10	30%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09	0.02	-0.11	-0.00	20	53%	0.04	4	-0.13	5	80%	0.02
George Hill	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	5	40%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.07	0.01	7	68%	0.16	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.00	17	45%	0.04	1	-0.01	8	75%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.06	-0.01	8	50%	0.09	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Joe Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	8	35%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	10	45%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.6	23.2	15.7	24.8	1.6	39.2	128.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -2.4%

MIL +4.8%

MIL +29.3%

MIL +15.6%

MIL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIL	NBA	SAS	MIL	NBA
this game	18.5	17.3	15.5	96.3	102.5	106.4
season	16.4	15.0		106.6	104.9
opponent	15.6	15.7		105.6	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.3	17.6	20.9	17.5	18.5
MIL	19.6	16.7	17.9	15.3	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacque Vaughn	36	32	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.03	7	-11	18	16.7	19.9	-3.17	19.1	16.1	2.96
Fabricio Oberto	25	26	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.06	2	-6	8	21.8	17.0	4.86	18.3	16.8	1.57
Bruce Bowen	47	46	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.24	4	-8	12	17.0	20.5	-3.43	17.8	16.6	1.27
Kurt Thomas	24	22	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.11	-1	-3	2	17.7	18.8	-1.04	17.5	17.2	0.23
Ime Udoka	26	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	0	-4	20.2	17.7	2.52	17.8	17.0	0.83
Anthony Tolliver	51	49	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.16	-3	-1	-2	16.8	21.4	-4.58	16.8	18.1	-1.27
Michael Finley	52	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.35	1	-5	6	17.1	21.0	-3.87	16.7	18.3	-1.59
Tim Duncan	57	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-1	-2	18.8	17.7	1.04	17.2	17.5	-0.23
George Hill	33	36	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.15	-13	9	-22	21.9	16.1	5.84	17.3	17.3	0.03
Roger Mason Jr.	54	53	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.46	-10	6	-16	19.4	16.7	2.61	15.9	19.9	-3.98

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	64	65	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.34	13	-9	22	17.2	17.6	-0.34	18.6	17.8	0.83
Luc Mbah a Moute	59	58	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.46	8	-4	12	16.8	18.8	-2.00	19.1	16.9	2.19
Charlie Bell	58	58	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.50	6	-2	8	17.3	17.3	-0.04	18.7	18.0	0.67
Andrew Bogut	70	71	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.31	11	-7	18	17.1	18.6	-1.50	19.0	15.1	3.86
Ramon Sessions	41	44	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.40	8	-4	12	16.4	18.2	-1.84	17.2	20.0	-2.85
Luke Ridnour	49	49	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.15	1	3	-2	18.0	16.1	1.94	19.6	16.8	2.71
Francisco Elson	10	10	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	11	-18	18.6	17.1	1.50	15.1	19.0	-3.86
Charlie Villanueva	17	19	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.01	-5	9	-14	18.3	17.0	1.28	16.8	19.0	-2.14
Tyronn Lue	12	11	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.02	-7	11	-18	17.3	17.3	0.05	17.9	18.6	-0.66
Joe Alexander	20	20	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.02	-8	12	-20	18.2	17.0	1.22	17.7	18.7	-1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.22,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.47,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.91,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 101, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.32,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.42,0.63,0.69,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.98,1,1	93.6%
SAS 78, CLE 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.99,1	93.5%
GSW 95, PHX 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.3,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.19,0.26,0.53,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.77,0.89,0.99,1,1,1	93.1%