NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	104		Excitement	9.1 [116]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (MIL): +15.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	112		Comeback	40.0 [26]		LVP	DeShawn Stevenson (WAS): -24.9%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Young	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	13	47%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
JaVale McGee	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	60%	0.04	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.08
Darius Songaila	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	5	64%	0.09	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Dominic McGuire	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	1	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Juan Dixon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Oleksiy Pecherov	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.01,-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	19	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	12	58%	-0.06
Andray Blatche	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	2	62%	0.05	4	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Caron Butler	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	0.05	-0.17	-0.00	15	67%	0.12	5	-0.25	10	90%	0.03
Antonio Daniels	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	5	23%	-0.10	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.25,-0.25	-0.08	-0.18	-0.01	8	33%	-0.07	2	-0.18	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.04	0.02	23	63%	0.20	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.00	17	56%	0.20	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.07	0.17	-0.01	7	48%	0.25	4	-0.14	7	29%	-0.14
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.02	-0.01	10	77%	0.11	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Alexander	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	13	61%	0.05	4	-0.10	7	86%	-0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	12	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	28.9	15.0	27.4	2.4	35.2	1.8	15.0	152.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +54.0%

WAS -8.3%

WAS -29.2%

MIL +35.0%

WAS -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	16.1	13.7	15.5	98.1	103.7	106.4
season	15.9	15.0		103.5	104.9
opponent	15.6	15.2		105.6	111.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
WAS	16.9	14.4	14.3	18.3	17.3	16.1
MIL	16.6	16.2	12.4	11.2	11.0	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dominic McGuire	25	27	0.46	-0.96	1.42	0.08	13	-21	34	16.0	16.1	-0.02	14.2	13.5	0.72
Oleksiy Pecherov	6	7	0.20	-0.70	0.89	-0.04	8	-16	24	14.2	16.2	-2.00	15.7	13.5	2.17
Juan Dixon	40	44	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.26	12	-20	32	15.0	16.7	-1.66	13.9	13.5	0.42
Nick Young	51	53	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.34	13	-21	34	15.2	16.9	-1.70	13.6	13.8	-0.16
Andray Blatche	42	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	-4	0	15.7	16.3	-0.53	16.0	12.1	3.88
Dee Brown	7	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-4	0	16.9	16.0	0.86	13.5	13.7	-0.20
Darius Songaila	48	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.14	2	-10	12	16.1	16.1	0.01	12.6	14.5	-1.86
Antonio Daniels	40	38	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.14	-15	7	-22	17.1	15.4	1.76	14.3	13.3	1.01
JaVale McGee	27	29	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-5	2	16.3	16.0	0.32	13.6	13.7	-0.14
Antawn Jamison	83	85	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.12	-20	12	-32	16.1	15.9	0.18	12.7	17.3	-4.65
Caron Butler	87	88	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.22	-20	12	-32	16.2	15.3	0.97	13.8	13.3	0.41
DeShawn Stevenson	74	73	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.24	-22	14	-36	16.6	14.9	1.65	13.3	14.5	-1.27

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	100	98	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.21	19	-11	30	13.6	14.6	-1.01	16.2	13.9	2.36
Andrew Bogut	75	75	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.23	16	-8	24	13.2	14.7	-1.46	16.4	15.2	1.22
Ramon Sessions	74	73	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.28	14	-6	20	12.3	16.6	-4.32	16.1	15.9	0.17
Luke Ridnour	87	85	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.22	15	-7	22	13.3	15.4	-2.16	16.5	14.2	2.33
Luc Mbah a Moute	72	70	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.35	3	5	-2	12.4	16.3	-3.89	16.2	15.7	0.51
Charlie Villanueva	38	39	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.10	4	4	0	15.6	12.7	2.92	15.9	16.2	-0.29
Francisco Elson	10	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	11	-14	18.6	13.2	5.42	13.8	16.3	-2.49
Dan Gadzuric	12	13	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.02	-4	12	-16	12.8	13.8	-0.96	14.9	16.2	-1.29
Malik Allen	20	17	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	17	-26	16.4	13.1	3.39	15.4	16.2	-0.84
Charlie Bell	43	43	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.03	-6	14	-20	16.1	12.1	4.08	15.6	16.4	-0.84
Joe Alexander	9	8	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.02	-9	17	-26	13.7	13.7	-0.02	13.1	16.3	-3.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.09,0.17,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.22,0.1,0.07,0.22,0.42,0.46,0.31,0.45,0.43,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 106, GSW 111	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.5,0.48,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.16,0.23,0.15,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.57,0.84,1	89.6%
NYK 109, IND 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.25,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.17,0.14,0.28,0.32,0.26,0	87.3%
GSW 133, MIL 138	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.26,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.21,0.15,0.16,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.85,0.84,1	87.2%