NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	103		Excitement	4.5 [920]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +19.5%
Orlando Magic	121		Comeback	1.1 [1233]		LVP	Spencer Hawes (SAC): -10.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.03	-0.00	20	65%	0.19	2	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	-0.00	7	75%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Shelden Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	5	69%	0.05	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Bobby Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Douby	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	8	58%	0.05	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Mikki Moore	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	11	46%	0.00	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Spencer Hawes	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	0.08	11	61%	-0.06	4	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.22	0.01	0.04	14	72%	0.23	1	-0.03	12	58%	-0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.15	0.02	0.05	9	80%	0.14	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.01	-0.01	13	66%	0.13	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	9	60%	0.08	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	70%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	0.00	0.08	20	59%	0.02	4	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	0.3	29.0	15.8	30.2	2.5	28.2	135.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +17.6%

ORL +10.2%

ORL +17.8%

SAC -4.2%

ORL +8.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ORL	NBA	SAC	ORL	NBA
this game	15.1	16.5	15.5	114.4	131.5	106.4
season	15.0	15.3		104.0	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.1		101.4	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.2	14.8	15.5	14.9	15.1
ORL	14.2	16.5	17.2	18.5	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mikki Moore	40	41	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-19	20	14.6	15.5	-0.83	16.0	16.9	-0.90
Quincy Douby	17	16	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.04	-2	-16	14	16.6	14.8	1.82	17.7	16.3	1.49
Kenny Thomas	13	13	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-14	10	16.0	15.0	1.04	16.7	16.5	0.20
Jason Thompson	42	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-13	8	16.1	14.2	1.85	18.1	15.1	3.04
Shelden Williams	36	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-16	14	15.1	15.1	-0.09	16.6	16.4	0.20
Bobby Jackson	34	34	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	-8	-2	15.0	15.2	-0.13	15.4	17.2	-1.71
Beno Udrih	67	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.12	-17	-1	-16	15.1	15.0	0.09	16.5	16.6	-0.15
Spencer Hawes	45	49	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.20	-20	2	-22	14.7	15.5	-0.76	16.0	17.2	-1.20
John Salmons	76	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	-3	-12	14.6	18.0	-3.42	16.5	16.7	-0.17
Kevin Martin	80	83	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.05	-16	-2	-14	15.1	15.0	0.13	16.4	17.2	-0.78

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	75	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.07	17	1	16	16.1	18.5	-2.46	15.2	14.7	0.44
Dwight Howard	77	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.11	18	0	18	16.5	16.7	-0.17	15.2	14.9	0.28
Keith Bogans	38	36	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	7	4	17.6	15.8	1.85	14.3	15.6	-1.34
Mickael Pietrus	62	59	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.07	14	4	10	15.9	17.8	-1.90	15.2	14.9	0.37
Jameer Nelson	59	57	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.09	14	4	10	15.8	17.8	-2.02	15.4	14.6	0.75
Hedo Turkoglu	66	68	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.05	11	7	4	17.0	15.2	1.85	14.9	15.8	-0.88
Anthony Johnson	33	33	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	14	-10	17.8	15.8	2.02	14.6	15.4	-0.75
Tony Battie	32	33	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	17	-16	17.7	15.9	1.74	14.8	15.3	-0.46
JJ Redick	18	17	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	18	-18	14.4	17.0	-2.58	17.2	14.6	2.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 82, SAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
PHI 110, DEN 126	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.6,0.63,0.75,0.77,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.84,0.79,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
DAL 88, LAC 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.84,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%