NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	112		Excitement	6.4 [546]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +23.1%
Dallas Mavericks	102		Comeback	1.9 [374]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): -11.6%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.18	0.06	0.01	15	79%	0.32	3	-0.09	8	100%	0.06
Metta World Peace	0.20	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.08	-0.00	22	58%	0.20	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.03
Aaron Brooks	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.00	12	54%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Carl Landry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.01	3	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	10	52%	0.07	1	-0.03	11	91%	0.04
Brent Barry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	64%	0.05	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Charles Hayes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Rafer Alston	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	6	25%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.18	0.02	-0.01	22	62%	0.26	2	-0.05	14	100%	0.09
Josh Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	-0.00	0.02	19	60%	0.10	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.03
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	13	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.01
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	11	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Antoine Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	6	17%	-0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	6	17%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	3.4	33.6	19.6	30.1	2.6	40.0	157.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +46.9%

HOU +4.5%

HOU +2.3%

DAL -9.9%

HOU +6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DAL	NBA	HOU	DAL	NBA
this game	16.9	13.3	15.5	116.7	107.4	106.4
season	16.3	15.6		105.9	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.2		107.1	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.3	16.9	18.3	17.3	16.9
DAL	12.3	12.4	14.5	14.0	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	50	50	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.21	21	-11	32	16.6	17.1	-0.49	13.4	13.1	0.29
Aaron Brooks	39	39	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.17	22	-12	34	16.8	16.9	-0.09	13.7	13.0	0.68
Brent Barry	52	53	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.19	21	-11	32	16.9	16.9	0.02	13.2	13.4	-0.17
Metta World Peace	80	77	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.17	11	-1	12	16.9	16.9	-0.07	13.7	11.4	2.31
Yao Ming	83	80	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	-2	14	16.4	20.1	-3.70	13.8	10.3	3.56
Carl Landry	14	15	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.14	-2	12	-14	19.7	16.4	3.32	11.5	13.6	-2.13
Tracy McGrady	60	60	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	0.05	-12	22	-34	16.9	16.9	0.02	12.8	14.1	-1.35
Rafer Alston	58	58	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	-0.02	-10	20	-30	17.0	16.7	0.32	12.7	14.2	-1.56
Luis Scola	44	43	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	0.05	-13	23	-36	17.1	16.7	0.36	13.1	13.4	-0.23

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	43	44	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.06	6	-16	22	13.8	12.8	1.05	16.8	16.9	-0.10
Antoine Wright	35	34	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.07	6	-16	22	13.5	13.1	0.44	16.6	17.0	-0.35
Dirk Nowitzki	77	77	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.23	6	-16	22	12.7	15.7	-3.03	17.4	14.7	2.67
Jason Kidd	73	75	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-9	8	12.9	14.4	-1.49	17.1	16.1	1.00
Josh Howard	82	82	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-12	14	13.1	14.2	-1.03	17.1	15.6	1.53
DeSagana Diop	21	22	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.05	-18	8	-26	15.1	12.7	2.41	15.3	17.4	-2.08
Brandon Bass	49	49	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.17	-14	4	-18	12.9	13.7	-0.84	16.8	16.9	-0.12
Jason Terry	60	62	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.14	-16	6	-22	13.1	13.5	-0.44	17.0	16.6	0.35
Jerry Stackhouse	35	35	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.01	-21	11	-32	14.3	12.6	1.66	15.9	17.4	-1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.31,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.31,0.2,0.13,0.05,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 117, MIN 110	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.26,0.08,0.03,0.15,0.04,0,0,0	92.6%
TOR 116, DEN 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.31,0.06,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0	92.5%
SEA 93, CHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.27,0.31,0.19,0.17,0.03,0.02,0,0,0	92.0%