NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	113		Excitement	7.1 [367]		MVP	Mike Miller (MEM): +43.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	101		Comeback	3.5 [210]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -12.8%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.29	0.15	0.01	20	81%	0.43	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Rudy Gay	0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.12,0.19,0.22,0.23,0.23	0.05	0.17	-0.00	17	56%	0.29	2	-0.06	7	71%	-0.00
Hakim Warrick	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	13	57%	0.15	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.05
Juan Carlos Navarro	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.01	6	56%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Jason Collins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	47%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Darko Milicic	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.02	10	48%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Javaris Crittenton	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	9	22%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.00	5	80%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	-0.01	15	51%	0.10	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.02
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.06	0.01	10	69%	0.20	4	-0.12	6	67%	-0.01
Randy Foye	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.02	16	53%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Snyder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	6	85%	0.14	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Chris Richard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0,0,0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	17	47%	0.09	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	28.2	15.5	29.9	1.8	30.3	132.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN -16.2%

MEM +35.4%

MEM +5.9%

MEM +22.8%

MEM +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIN	NBA	MEM	MIN	NBA
this game	14.2	15.1	15.4	115.3	102.0	105.7
season	14.9	15.9		103.3	102.2
opponent	15.0	14.9		109.6	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.1	14.8	13.3	14.5	14.2
MIN	15.3	15.8	14.4	14.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	81	82	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.16	25	-13	38	14.5	12.5	2.06	15.2	14.6	0.57
Mike Miller	77	78	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.16	18	-6	24	13.9	15.0	-1.11	15.7	12.6	3.16
Jason Collins	47	48	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.27	11	1	10	14.6	13.8	0.77	14.5	15.6	-1.05
Kyle Lowry	51	54	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	8	-4	14.3	14.1	0.21	14.1	16.2	-2.01
Mike Conley	47	45	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	4	4	14.1	14.3	-0.21	16.2	14.1	2.01
Juan Carlos Navarro	48	49	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.20	0	12	-12	14.5	13.9	0.60	14.4	15.7	-1.33
Javaris Crittenton	14	14	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	14	-16	15.6	13.9	1.71	14.9	15.1	-0.24
Darko Milicic	51	51	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.13	1	11	-10	13.8	14.6	-0.77	15.6	14.5	1.05
Hakim Warrick	74	74	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.10	-5	17	-22	13.6	16.1	-2.53	14.7	16.0	-1.31

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Richard	11	11	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-15	18	17.9	14.7	3.20	14.5	14.1	0.32
Craig Smith	39	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.29	7	-19	26	15.5	14.8	0.75	13.9	14.4	-0.50
Rashad McCants	57	57	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.30	5	-17	22	14.5	15.9	-1.42	14.1	14.3	-0.16
Corey Brewer	40	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.28	-16	4	-20	14.9	15.1	-0.19	14.9	13.7	1.20
Al Jefferson	69	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.23	-15	3	-18	14.6	16.1	-1.54	14.1	14.3	-0.22
Kirk Snyder	59	59	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.43	4	-16	20	15.1	14.9	0.19	13.7	14.9	-1.20
Randy Foye	67	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	-1	-10	14.9	15.4	-0.51	15.0	12.3	2.75
Marko Jaric	74	71	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.09	-18	6	-24	15.7	13.2	2.44	13.4	16.1	-2.73
Ryan Gomes	79	79	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.20	-19	7	-26	14.8	15.9	-1.05	14.3	13.5	0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.26,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.6,0.46,0.32,0.16,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 100, ORL 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.29,0.25,0.11,0.1,0.01,0	91.3%
NJN 124, MIL 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.47,0.61,0.45,0.17,0.02,0	91.3%
UTA 102, LAL 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.34,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.41,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.43,0.62,0.71,0.59,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.13,0.04,0	90.9%