NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	104		Excitement	6.7 [434]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +22.4%
Charlotte Bobcats	100		Comeback	3.0 [248]		LVP	Matt Carroll (CHA): -10.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.10	0.01	20	57%	0.22	0	0.00	16	81%	0.07
Jamario Moon	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.00	7	75%	0.17	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.01
Anthony Parker	0.07	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	14	62%	0.14	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	14	47%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
T.J. Ford	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	12	53%	0.07	2	-0.06	6	67%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	46%	0.02	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Linton Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.11	0.15	0.01	0.04	17	68%	0.15	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.00	8	69%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	14	60%	0.11	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Ryan Hollins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.06	-0.07	0.04	16	56%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Raymond Felton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	10	38%	-0.01	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.05
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	8	19%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	1.8	31.2	15.6	25.2	2.5	36.4	138.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA -1.5%

TOR +26.9%

TOR +25.8%

CHA -2.2%

TOR +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHA	NBA	TOR	CHA	NBA
this game	15.7	14.0	15.4	107.2	103.1	105.7
season	15.6	15.8		108.5	103.1
opponent	15.1	15.7		107.8	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.0	15.3	15.5	17.3	15.7
CHA	14.4	11.4	16.5	14.0	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. Ford	70	69	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.25	19	-15	34	15.2	17.2	-2.01	13.8	14.4	-0.56
Rasho Nesterovic	55	55	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.25	14	-10	24	16.4	14.8	1.58	14.0	13.9	0.14
Chris Bosh	92	92	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.36	9	-5	14	15.7	16.0	-0.28	14.4	6.2	8.18
Anthony Parker	82	81	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.39	8	-4	12	15.9	14.8	1.10	14.6	10.7	3.84
Jamario Moon	77	77	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.16	15	-11	26	15.0	18.4	-3.36	13.3	16.3	-3.01
Kris Humphries	22	22	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	1	2	16.8	15.4	1.35	16.3	13.3	2.99
Linton Johnson	5	5	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	9	-14	16.0	15.7	0.28	6.2	14.4	-8.18
Andrea Bargnani	17	17	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.07	-10	14	-24	14.7	15.9	-1.24	11.9	14.4	-2.52
Jose Calderon	37	39	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.30	-18	22	-40	15.6	15.8	-0.27	13.4	14.3	-0.96
Carlos Delfino	28	28	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.15	-15	19	-34	17.2	15.1	2.08	14.4	13.8	0.56

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	42	41	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.22	12	-16	28	14.1	13.9	0.24	16.9	14.9	2.03
Matt Carroll	38	36	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.19	10	-14	24	13.6	14.2	-0.58	15.0	16.1	-1.12
Ryan Hollins	4	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-2	0	9.7	14.1	-4.39	15.8	15.7	0.07
Jared Dudley	52	51	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-8	12	14.4	13.4	1.04	17.5	13.8	3.62
Emeka Okafor	76	75	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-4	4	13.5	15.5	-1.94	15.4	17.0	-1.58
Gerald Wallace	87	87	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-6	8	14.2	12.2	1.96	15.5	17.8	-2.31
Nazr Mohammed	43	44	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.11	-14	10	-24	16.1	12.3	3.79	15.7	15.7	-0.01
Raymond Felton	64	66	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.23	-17	13	-30	13.4	15.0	-1.62	15.0	17.2	-2.20
Jason Richardson	79	80	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.32	-15	11	-26	13.4	16.3	-2.85	15.5	16.7	-1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.63,0.55,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.41,0.31,0.23,0.29,0.18,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.16,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 95, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.01,0	93.1%
IND 103, BOS 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.45,0.04,0	92.2%
MIN 103, MIL 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.47,0.31,0.16,0.04,0,0	92.2%