NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	69		Excitement	5.4 [718]		MVP	Jason Maxiell (DET): +15.7%
Detroit Pistons	85		Comeback	2.3 [1189]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -12.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Blake Ahearn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	10	52%	0.07	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.03
Alexander Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	62%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	2	60%	0.04	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephane Lasme	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	11	45%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.07	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	10	46%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Kasib Powell	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	8	12%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	9	32%	-0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.05	0.00	6	79%	0.18	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.03	0.04	9	68%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	7	46%	0.05	0	0.00	10	50%	-0.09
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.05	4	25%	0.01	1	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.08	-0.02	0.08	9	62%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.01	9	62%	0.08	5	-0.13	3	100%	0.02
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	13	31%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.7	33.0	17.4	28.6	2.6	27.3	133.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +26.4%

MIA -8.1%

DET +11.4%

DET +15.2%

DET +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	17.4	18.3	15.4	85.2	106.2	105.7
season	16.0	16.8		99.0	108.8
opponent	15.8	15.4		101.3	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	19.1	14.8	18.7	17.9	17.4
DET	17.8	15.2	21.3	19.9	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	56	57	0.11	-0.61	0.73	0.06	2	-18	20	17.4	17.4	0.01	18.2	18.8	-0.62
Joel Anthony	23	25	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.12	-8	-8	0	16.8	17.7	-0.86	18.8	18.1	0.61
Mark Blount	43	42	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	-11	6	17.7	17.2	0.49	17.3	19.5	-2.21
Earl Barron	43	42	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-11	6	18.1	16.7	1.33	17.2	19.6	-2.36
Alexander Johnson	15	13	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-13	10	17.7	17.4	0.35	20.9	17.8	3.09
Stephane Lasme	38	38	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	-5	-6	16.7	18.1	-1.33	19.6	17.2	2.36
Kasib Powell	57	56	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.02	-17	1	-18	18.3	15.5	2.76	18.6	17.6	1.02
Ricky Davis	74	73	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	-1	-14	17.6	15.7	1.89	18.5	16.9	1.62
Blake Ahearn	56	54	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.11	-18	2	-20	16.4	19.8	-3.41	18.0	19.0	-0.98

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	54	55	0.64	-0.14	0.77	-0.10	25	-9	34	18.4	18.3	0.10	17.8	16.7	1.11
Tayshaun Prince	57	60	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.02	18	-2	20	18.1	18.9	-0.81	17.4	17.5	-0.04
Antonio McDyess	50	51	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	5	6	18.4	18.2	0.17	17.5	17.3	0.18
Rasheed Wallace	54	55	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.05	15	1	14	17.6	19.9	-2.35	17.3	17.8	-0.53
Rodney Stuckey	32	32	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	11	-6	19.1	17.9	1.21	17.3	17.5	-0.17
Jason Maxiell	26	26	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	15	-14	19.5	17.8	1.72	17.0	17.6	-0.60
Chauncey Billups	55	58	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	12	-8	18.0	19.0	-0.96	17.5	17.3	0.20
Amir Johnson	27	28	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.03	3	13	-10	18.5	18.3	0.22	17.8	17.2	0.58
Lindsey Hunter	19	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	18	-20	17.9	18.5	-0.58	16.3	17.7	-1.46
Walter Herrmann	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	14	-12	19.7	18.3	1.38	20.5	17.4	3.13
Jarvis Hayes	23	21	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.05	-2	18	-20	18.9	18.1	0.81	17.5	17.4	0.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 100, GSW 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.39,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.72,0.69,0.84,0.72,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.1%
LAC 88, WAS 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.92,0.9,0.82,0.76,0.73,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.93,1,1,1	93.9%
NYK 89, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.39,0.5,0.51,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.55,0.52,0.66,0.83,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.91,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.91,0.91,0.98,0.95,0.99,0.98,1	93.8%