NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	94		Excitement	9.4 [85]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +38.2%
Dallas Mavericks	90		Comeback	4.8 [193]		LVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): -39.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.38	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.38	0.04	0.35	0.01	17	55%	0.44	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
James Posey	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28	0.12	0.16	0.00	5	92%	0.28	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Paul Pierce	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	14	54%	0.03	0	0.00	13	77%	-0.09
Leon Powe	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	46%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Kendrick Perkins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Eddie House	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.09	0.00	9	20%	-0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kevin Garnett	-0.26	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.01,-0.06,-0.28,-0.26	-0.04	-0.23	-0.01	22	40%	-0.26	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Rajon Rondo	-0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.21	-0.05	-0.01	7	0%	-0.14	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.14	0.15	0.01	15	67%	0.27	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.12	0.01	15	57%	0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	7	53%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	53%	0.05	0	0.00	7	29%	-0.11
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	8	19%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.24,-0.36	-0.36	-0.09	-0.25	0.01	20	48%	-0.08	6	-0.28	6	100%	0.08
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.31,-0.31,-0.4	-0.40	-0.14	-0.26	-0.01	8	12%	-0.23	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.8	29.2	19.4	28.5	3.6	45.2	156.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL -12.9%

BOS +8.9%

BOS +8.2%

BOS +37.8%

BOS +8.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DAL	NBA	BOS	DAL	NBA
this game	14.3	15.2	15.4	95.9	92.8	105.7
season	15.6	16.1		108.0	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.9		105.0	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.6	15.3	14.6	13.0	14.3
DAL	13.6	19.0	13.7	15.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Cassell	51	50	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.35	15	-11	26	14.3	14.3	0.01	16.1	14.3	1.82
James Posey	41	40	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.43	7	-3	10	14.3	14.3	-0.02	16.4	14.4	1.97
Paul Pierce	78	78	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.43	5	-1	6	13.7	16.6	-2.92	14.6	17.7	-3.07
Kevin Garnett	71	70	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	5	-6	13.8	15.6	-1.75	14.7	16.6	-1.91
Eddie House	17	16	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.13	11	-7	18	15.2	14.1	1.10	18.9	14.5	4.46
P.J. Brown	24	23	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	-2	8	15.5	14.0	1.50	17.3	14.6	2.74
Leon Powe	31	31	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.09	8	-4	12	15.7	13.7	2.02	16.6	14.6	2.05
Ray Allen	66	65	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.43	-10	14	-24	14.2	14.5	-0.26	14.1	17.4	-3.27
Kendrick Perkins	64	65	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.07	-10	14	-24	14.3	14.3	0.05	14.6	16.6	-2.01
Rajon Rondo	47	47	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.01	-11	15	-26	14.3	14.3	-0.01	14.3	16.1	-1.82

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	19	19	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-1	-2	18.1	14.5	3.59	15.9	13.9	2.01
Devean George	18	19	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.10	-7	3	-10	18.2	14.5	3.69	15.8	14.0	1.88
Malik Allen	20	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	2	-8	18.6	14.3	4.26	16.2	13.8	2.37
Tyronn Lue	13	13	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.04	-9	5	-14	19.5	14.5	4.99	15.1	14.2	0.87
Josh Howard	82	82	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.44	6	-10	16	14.5	18.9	-4.40	14.2	15.1	-0.88
Jason Terry	28	29	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.06	-12	8	-20	16.5	14.7	1.75	14.9	14.1	0.76
Jason Kidd	75	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.44	5	-9	14	14.4	18.1	-3.78	13.9	15.7	-1.79
Jerry Stackhouse	76	77	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.41	3	-7	10	14.7	17.0	-2.28	14.0	15.4	-1.40
Dirk Nowitzki	80	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.44	2	-6	8	14.4	19.2	-4.80	13.9	16.1	-2.19
Erick Dampier	74	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.45	1	-5	6	14.6	17.1	-2.45	14.0	15.4	-1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.25,0.36,0.45,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 91, DAL 90	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.72,0.58,0.53,0.29,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.31,0.42,0	91.5%
MIN 99, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.56,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.76,0.81,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.14,0.46,0.45,0.42,0	90.7%
CHI 88, POR 84	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.47,0.36,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.57,0.42,0	89.8%