NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	112		Excitement	6.2 [552]		MVP	Chris Quinn (MIA): +34.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	106		Comeback	7.0 [31]		LVP	Shawn Marion (MIA): -12.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Quinn	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.35	0.20	0.16	0.01	6	121%	0.35	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jones	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.00	6	69%	0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Daequan Cook	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.02	0.02	7	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.06
Jason Williams	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	15	57%	0.13	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.01
Earl Barron	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.06	0.01	15	47%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Ricky Davis	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.02	10	64%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	64%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	37%	-0.06
Mark Blount	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	8	44%	-0.01	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.03	0.02	14	67%	0.19	2	-0.05	12	92%	0.06
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.02	8	64%	0.06	1	-0.05	6	33%	-0.06
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	9	38%	0.00	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.05
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.01	13	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.11	0.00	0.12	15	60%	0.03	2	-0.04	13	77%	-0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	27%	-0.04	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	14	36%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	31.6	16.3	26.3	2.5	41.5	144.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +71.8%

MIL -14.8%

MIA +1.7%

MIL -9.2%

MIA +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	18.1	14.7	15.4	128.7	119.1	105.7
season	16.0	15.8		99.0	103.4
opponent	15.2	15.4		110.7	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.2	19.6	18.3	18.8	18.1
MIL	12.6	15.6	15.2	15.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Barron	47	50	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.33	18	-12	30	18.7	17.5	1.18	14.6	14.7	-0.12
Chris Quinn	37	37	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.37	16	-10	26	18.2	18.1	0.13	15.7	13.9	1.80
Joel Anthony	37	37	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.42	13	-7	20	17.6	18.5	-0.95	14.9	14.5	0.36
Bobby Jones	33	33	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.21	15	-9	24	19.5	17.3	2.26	15.6	14.1	1.56
Ricky Davis	69	72	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.22	-2	8	-10	18.2	17.8	0.36	15.0	13.3	1.68
Jason Williams	68	70	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.27	-6	12	-18	18.2	17.9	0.28	13.7	18.3	-4.66
Daequan Cook	54	55	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.08	-5	11	-16	17.0	19.9	-2.84	14.2	15.4	-1.18
Mark Blount	38	39	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	-0.05	-9	15	-24	17.3	18.8	-1.47	15.1	14.3	0.76
Shawn Marion	52	52	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.05	-10	16	-26	18.6	17.4	1.24	14.2	15.2	-1.01

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	34	33	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.04	3	-9	12	14.6	14.7	-0.10	15.8	19.5	-3.65
Michael Redd	78	77	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.26	7	-13	20	14.1	18.5	-4.34	18.3	16.8	1.49
Mo Williams	72	69	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.12	1	-7	8	13.7	18.6	-4.94	17.5	20.3	-2.80
Charlie Villanueva	53	52	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-3	0	14.6	14.7	-0.07	18.2	17.9	0.29
Desmond Mason	65	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-6	6	13.6	17.5	-3.90	17.0	21.0	-3.99
Yi Jianlian	22	21	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.12	-9	3	-12	17.9	13.6	4.27	19.3	17.7	1.54
Royal Ivey	17	18	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	1	-8	18.6	13.7	4.94	20.3	17.5	2.80
Michael Ruffin	61	60	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.33	-9	3	-12	14.5	15.1	-0.61	19.4	15.3	4.09
Charlie Bell	43	43	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.34	-13	7	-20	15.9	13.5	2.47	18.7	17.5	1.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.7,0.57,0.43,0.38,0.23,0.1,0.09,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 98, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.64,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	92.3%
SAS 112, POR 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.71,0.6,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.74,0.57,0.43,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.05,0.09,0.16,0	92.0%
IND 115, ORL 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.72,0.79,0.88,0.72,0.62,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.47,0.26,0.16,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0	92.0%