NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	97		Excitement	7.1 [355]		MVP	Chris Paul (NOH): +39.2%
New Orleans Hornets	108		Comeback	13.1 [148]		LVP	Drew Gooden (CHI): -16.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35	0.19	0.12	-0.03	17	76%	0.43	3	-0.09	7	86%	-0.01
Joakim Noah	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Luol Deng	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	14	47%	0.03	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Aaron Gray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Andres Nocioni	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	4	40%	0.01	1	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.06	0.02	15	52%	0.02	2	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	6	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	0.01	-0.17	0.00	17	55%	0.10	3	-0.26	8	87%	0.02

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.24	0.19	0.04	21	76%	0.43	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.01	0.00	8	82%	0.14	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	13	56%	0.12	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	5	45%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Melvin Ely	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	8	40%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.03	19	48%	-0.01	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.8	32.6	15.7	28.3	2.4	32.7	139.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +10.0%

NOH +7.1%

CHI -5.1%

NOH +37.6%

NOH +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	NOH	NBA	CHI	NOH	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	15.4	102.1	114.9	105.7
season	15.0	15.9		102.2	109.6
opponent	15.7	15.5		104.0	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.6	17.5	14.5	17.7	15.7
NOH	15.9	15.3	14.3	13.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	33	34	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.22	9	-20	29	13.7	16.8	-3.08	15.7	14.2	1.52
Aaron Gray	16	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.04	-2	-9	7	16.6	15.5	1.11	17.1	14.3	2.77
Tyrus Thomas	23	23	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.04	-2	-9	7	17.5	15.1	2.34	16.1	14.3	1.81
Andres Nocioni	9	9	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	-6	1	19.0	15.4	3.64	14.8	14.8	0.01
Joakim Noah	69	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-5	-1	15.0	17.7	-2.74	14.4	15.8	-1.49
Thabo Sefolosha	25	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.07	-7	-4	-3	18.2	14.8	3.44	14.0	15.1	-1.10
Larry Hughes	80	79	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.02	-10	-1	-9	14.8	20.5	-5.65	14.5	16.4	-1.94
Luol Deng	86	85	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	-5	-1	15.4	19.0	-3.64	14.8	14.8	-0.01
Drew Gooden	69	68	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-8	5	15.6	16.0	-0.35	14.9	14.5	0.42
Ben Gordon	65	63	-0.82	0.32	-1.15	-0.15	-23	12	-35	16.9	13.1	3.76	14.2	15.9	-1.75

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bonzi Wells	52	52	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.28	22	-11	33	14.2	15.5	-1.28	16.7	14.5	2.18
Jannero Pargo	57	58	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.18	18	-7	25	14.3	15.5	-1.19	17.3	13.3	3.99
Chris Paul	84	86	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.13	13	-2	15	14.5	17.3	-2.84	15.3	19.9	-4.62
Peja Stojakovic	88	90	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.12	13	-2	15	14.5	18.2	-3.63	15.6	18.0	-2.42
Tyson Chandler	85	87	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.24	5	6	-1	14.6	16.7	-2.10	15.7	16.2	-0.59
Melvin Ely	9	8	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.06	6	5	1	16.7	14.6	2.10	16.2	15.7	0.59
Julian Wright	35	35	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.13	0	11	-11	15.8	14.2	1.65	16.7	15.1	1.55
Morris Peterson	48	48	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.02	-7	18	-25	15.4	14.1	1.37	14.6	16.8	-2.14
Ryan Bowen	24	24	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.07	-12	23	-35	15.6	14.5	1.10	12.6	16.8	-4.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.33,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.1,0.12,0.27,0.38,0.29,0.77,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 71, DET 80	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.12,0.38,0.46,0.65,0.96,1	92.0%
CLE 101, ORL 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.38,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.26,0.29,0.19,0.11,0.26,0.11,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.13,0.14,0.37,0.78,0.91,1	91.6%
CHI 74, PHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.39,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.25,0.46,0.55,0.91,1	90.7%