NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	8.5 [166]		MVP	Kurt Thomas (SAS): +9.6%
San Antonio Spurs	107		Comeback	2.8 [643]		LVP	Marcus Camby (DEN): -7.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.01	13	71%	0.24	4	-0.17	5	60%	-0.04
Allen Iverson	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.23,0.28,0.23,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.09	-0.06	22	55%	0.16	2	-0.11	7	100%	0.05
Anthony Carter	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	71%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	3	50%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	15	56%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Chucky Atkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	15	46%	-0.01	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.05
Linas Kleiza	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	5	25%	-0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.07	0.02	8	65%	0.17	2	-0.08	4	25%	-0.06
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.00	15	57%	0.16	2	-0.07	10	90%	0.08
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.17,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.08	-0.00	14	50%	0.12	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.05	0.09	-0.01	11	37%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	62%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.10	0.00	8	61%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	11	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	34.1	16.4	27.6	2.6	36.4	143.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -1.0%

SAS +10.6%

SAS +18.9%

SAS +17.0%

SAS +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	13.0	15.7	15.4	101.0	108.1	105.7
season	13.3	16.5		108.2	104.7
opponent	15.3	15.2		100.5	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.3	12.4	14.3	14.6	13.0
SAS	15.4	15.0	15.1	17.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Atkins	26	25	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.05	9	-13	22	11.2	13.7	-2.43	17.5	15.0	2.44
Linas Kleiza	34	32	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.02	10	-14	24	11.1	14.0	-2.84	15.2	15.9	-0.74
Anthony Carter	40	40	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-2	0	13.7	12.6	1.17	14.9	16.1	-1.19
Eduardo Najera	54	51	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-4	4	12.4	13.8	-1.42	14.4	17.0	-2.61
Marcus Camby	59	57	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.24	-8	4	-12	13.6	12.2	1.39	16.2	14.9	1.26
J.R. Smith	62	59	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	-2	0	12.6	13.7	-1.17	16.1	14.9	1.19
Allen Iverson	92	89	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.31	-10	6	-16	13.2	11.1	2.15	15.3	19.2	-3.94
Kenyon Martin	60	60	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.34	-10	6	-16	14.2	11.4	2.74	16.3	14.6	1.76
Carmelo Anthony	83	82	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.54	-7	3	-10	13.3	11.7	1.67	15.6	15.8	-0.13

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	81	82	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.37	10	-6	16	15.5	16.3	-0.83	13.3	12.0	1.29
Tim Duncan	81	83	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.39	9	-5	14	15.5	16.3	-0.83	13.2	12.4	0.76
Bruce Bowen	84	84	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.39	8	-4	12	15.9	14.4	1.48	13.4	11.3	2.14
Kurt Thomas	57	59	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.31	6	-2	8	15.6	15.7	-0.14	13.2	12.9	0.31
Matt Bonner	30	32	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.02	8	-4	12	15.2	15.8	-0.61	13.2	12.9	0.31
Manu Ginobili	68	69	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.25	0	4	-4	14.8	17.5	-2.71	13.2	12.6	0.64
Michael Finley	37	37	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.12	1	3	-2	17.3	14.7	2.62	12.5	13.4	-0.91
Damon Stoudamire	12	13	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	5	-6	15.2	15.7	-0.56	12.6	13.1	-0.49
Jacque Vaughn	6	7	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.00	-5	9	-14	18.7	15.5	3.20	10.9	13.2	-2.34
Fabricio Oberto	17	18	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.02	-8	12	-20	16.1	15.6	0.56	11.8	13.3	-1.46
Ime Udoka	31	36	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.04	-9	13	-22	15.4	15.8	-0.44	11.3	14.0	-2.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.54,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 90, DET 93	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.53,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.76,0.73,1	91.8%
UTA 99, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.99,1	90.5%
PHX 103, NOH 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.94,0.92,1	90.3%