NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	97		Excitement	4.3 [940]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +11.5%
San Antonio Spurs	108		Comeback	1.4 [1149]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -15.7%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Harrison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.04	5	75%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	12	54%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0.00	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	22	46%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.05
Ronald Murray	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	12	42%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Shawne Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	80%	0.00	2	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Jeff Foster	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Travis Diener	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.03	10	55%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	10	46%	-0.02	2	-0.06	8	62%	-0.02
Marquis Daniels	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.05	0.04	13	80%	0.23	5	-0.11	9	89%	0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.00	8	73%	0.15	2	-0.04	10	60%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	13	54%	0.05	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	11	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.14	0.01	-0.10	5	18%	0.02	4	-0.05	1	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.03	-0.00	11	26%	-0.07	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.5	29.9	15.8	27.4	2.4	33.4	137.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +29.2%

SAS +3.4%

SAS +20.5%

IND -9.6%

SAS +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	SAS	NBA	IND	SAS	NBA
this game	13.1	15.8	15.4	98.0	108.0	105.7
season	13.8	16.5		104.5	104.7
opponent	15.3	15.2		100.5	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	12.4	14.7	14.0	11.5	13.1
SAS	14.2	16.6	16.6	16.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawne Williams	12	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-19	27	8.9	13.7	-4.75	18.3	15.5	2.83
Stephen Graham	26	26	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-15	19	11.5	13.6	-2.11	16.2	15.7	0.42
David Harrison	39	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-14	17	13.7	12.7	0.95	15.8	15.9	-0.07
Marquis Daniels	27	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-7	3	12.8	13.2	-0.38	16.7	15.5	1.21
Ronald Murray	39	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	-5	-1	13.2	13.0	0.23	15.8	15.8	0.02
Troy Murphy	69	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	0	-11	13.3	12.6	0.66	15.0	17.9	-2.85
Travis Diener	60	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-6	1	13.0	13.2	-0.23	15.8	15.8	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	65	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	1	-13	14.0	11.3	2.69	14.9	17.6	-2.65
Danny Granger	93	92	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.19	-13	2	-15	13.2	12.2	0.98	15.9	14.7	1.18
Jeff Foster	65	65	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.01	-19	8	-27	13.0	13.2	-0.18	16.6	14.5	2.13

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	49	49	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.02	19	-8	27	14.4	17.2	-2.73	15.0	11.2	3.78
Tim Duncan	49	49	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.04	14	-3	17	15.6	16.1	-0.49	14.0	12.2	1.80
Tony Parker	56	56	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.04	13	-2	15	14.9	17.0	-2.11	13.8	12.2	1.60
Manu Ginobili	56	58	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	-5	21	15.0	16.9	-1.95	14.3	11.4	2.94
Kurt Thomas	57	56	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.26	3	8	-5	15.5	16.2	-0.69	13.3	12.8	0.49
Michael Finley	52	51	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	7	-3	16.5	15.1	1.42	12.6	13.6	-0.92
Matt Bonner	51	49	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	12	-13	17.0	14.6	2.45	11.9	14.3	-2.40
Jacque Vaughn	24	25	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	10	-9	15.6	15.9	-0.34	12.0	13.5	-1.46
Fabricio Oberto	33	32	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	8	-5	15.3	16.1	-0.76	12.5	13.4	-0.83
Damon Stoudamire	28	26	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.24	-8	19	-27	18.7	14.7	3.99	11.2	13.8	-2.52
Ime Udoka	45	44	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.23	-9	20	-29	16.8	15.1	1.75	11.2	14.6	-3.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 83, NJN 117	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
BKN 73, MIL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.71,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
CHA 76, DAL 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.87,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.5%