NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	102		Excitement	7.8 [256]		MVP	Mo Williams (MIL): +54.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	97		Comeback	9.0 [94]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -13.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.55	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.4,0.55	0.15	0.40	0.01	22	67%	0.60	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Charlie Bell	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	14	61%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	5	58%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Royal Ivey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Simmons	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	10	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	14	40%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Charlie Villanueva	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.09	-0.03	14	53%	0.07	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.03

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.38,0.29,0.23	0.23	0.13	0.11	0.01	22	63%	0.28	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	5	58%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Javaris Crittenton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	62%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	1	100%	0.05	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Juan Carlos Navarro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	8	39%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	11	46%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,-0.13	-0.13	0.03	-0.16	-0.00	17	62%	0.13	4	-0.26	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	1.6	28.8	16.4	23.4	1.7	32.0	125.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +16.5%

MIL +0.1%

MIL +21.2%

MIL +15.4%

MEM -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MEM	NBA	MIL	MEM	NBA
this game	16.3	14.7	15.4	110.9	103.2	105.7
season	15.8	14.9		103.4	103.3
opponent	14.9	15.2		109.9	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.2	15.2	16.4	16.4	16.3
MEM	14.1	13.0	15.6	16.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	73	74	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.53	9	-4	13	16.1	17.0	-0.92	15.1	13.3	1.73
Charlie Bell	67	72	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.34	6	-1	7	16.2	16.6	-0.40	15.0	13.7	1.29
Andrew Bogut	71	73	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	0	5	16.4	16.0	0.41	14.5	15.3	-0.80
Bobby Simmons	47	50	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.23	7	-2	9	16.6	16.0	0.62	15.3	14.1	1.21
Charlie Villanueva	63	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	5	-5	16.0	16.9	-0.91	14.3	15.5	-1.15
Desmond Mason	45	46	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	-1	7	16.8	15.8	0.99	14.2	15.2	-1.06
Dan Gadzuric	21	21	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	5	-5	16.0	16.4	-0.41	15.3	14.5	0.80
Royal Ivey	73	71	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.06	-8	13	-21	16.3	16.2	0.14	14.3	16.0	-1.65

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juan Carlos Navarro	47	45	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.15	-3	-2	-1	14.4	15.0	-0.62	16.4	16.2	0.21
Javaris Crittenton	17	16	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-4	3	12.1	15.3	-3.24	15.4	16.4	-1.01
Darko Milicic	63	63	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.36	9	-14	23	14.4	15.4	-0.96	16.0	16.8	-0.71
Hakim Warrick	44	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-3	1	14.3	15.1	-0.74	16.6	15.9	0.70
Mike Miller	72	70	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-6	7	14.6	15.0	-0.32	16.4	15.9	0.48
Rudy Gay	80	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-3	1	15.2	12.1	3.10	15.9	18.2	-2.28
Kwame Brown	31	29	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.01	-14	9	-23	15.4	14.4	0.96	16.8	16.0	0.71
Brian Cardinal	38	36	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	2	-9	15.2	14.4	0.88	16.8	15.9	0.88
Kyle Lowry	55	55	-0.97	0.47	-1.45	-0.56	-14	9	-23	15.4	13.7	1.70	15.7	17.1	-1.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 90, MIA 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.57,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.54,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.27,0	90.4%
LAC 120, ORL 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.62,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.29,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.68,0.92,0.86,0.71,0	90.1%
SAS 95, MEM 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.59,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.26,0	89.8%