NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	120		Excitement	8.0 [238]		MVP	Eric Piatkowski (LAC): +31.6%
Orlando Magic	117		Comeback	12.2 [52]		LVP	Pat Burke (ORL): -7.6%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Piatkowski	0.32	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.21	0.12	0.02	9	105%	0.32	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Elton Brand	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.03	-0.05	11	57%	0.14	3	-0.09	6	67%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.00	6	43%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.09
Andre Miller	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	20	55%	0.07	2	-0.05	13	85%	0.04
Sean Rooks	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Corey Maggette	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	10	70%	0.10	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.07
Michael Olowokandi	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.02	14	70%	0.10	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
Marko Jaric	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	-0.01	-0.00	21	64%	0.13	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	-0.00	10	59%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Grant Hill	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.05	0.03	12	85%	0.26	6	-0.17	10	90%	0.05
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	18	47%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	13	45%	-0.02	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.05
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	7	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	1.7	29.0	17.8	27.5	2.7	43.3	148.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +22.9%

LAC +12.4%

LAC +22.0%

ORL -14.8%

LAC +7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	ORL	NBA	LAC	ORL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.2	15.5	125.0	120.6	101.6
season	15.4	14.6		100.2	102.7
opponent	15.8	15.4		103.1	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	17.2	13.8	13.9	18.2	15.7
ORL	14.1	15.6	13.3	13.7	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	81	81	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.45	13	-10	23	15.8	15.1	0.64	13.8	15.9	-2.11
Corey Maggette	54	54	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.55	-1	4	-5	15.2	16.2	-1.00	14.0	14.4	-0.35
Andre Miller	84	87	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	-2	7	15.1	19.7	-4.65	13.7	17.9	-4.15
Eric Piatkowski	63	64	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.29	2	1	1	16.9	13.3	3.66	13.9	14.7	-0.84
Marko Jaric	51	51	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.13	7	-4	11	15.1	16.4	-1.28	14.5	13.8	0.66
Keyon Dooling	51	49	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.31	-2	5	-7	15.6	15.8	-0.19	14.8	13.5	1.34
Sean Rooks	25	25	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.12	-1	4	-5	16.8	15.3	1.57	16.5	13.4	3.16
Michael Olowokandi	71	74	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.08	-8	11	-19	15.5	16.0	-0.49	14.0	14.8	-0.85

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Humphrey	14	15	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-4	5	16.4	13.8	2.55	14.8	15.8	-1.04
Pat Burke	54	52	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.17	4	-7	11	13.8	14.6	-0.77	15.6	15.8	-0.26
Darrell Armstrong	75	72	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.40	9	-12	21	13.6	16.0	-2.42	15.7	15.5	0.24
Grant Hill	67	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.48	7	-10	17	13.8	15.0	-1.24	16.3	14.4	1.86
Pat Garrity	80	78	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.31	1	-4	5	13.9	15.5	-1.57	15.9	14.8	1.04
Jacque Vaughn	20	22	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	5	-13	15.4	13.9	1.54	16.1	15.6	0.54
Mike Miller	59	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	1	-5	14.4	13.8	0.63	15.2	16.5	-1.27
Shawn Kemp	25	26	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.05	-19	16	-35	15.4	13.7	1.70	14.8	16.0	-1.19
Tracy McGrady	91	90	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.36	-6	3	-9	14.2	13.2	1.08	15.7	15.0	0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.62,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.29,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.68,0.92,0.86,0.71,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, MEM 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.42,0	90.1%
UTA 99, LAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.75,0.79,0.68,0.59,0	89.1%
LAL 96, HOU 93	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.3,0.33,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.47,0.78,0.67,0.42,0	88.3%