NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	99		Excitement	9.5 [78]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +45.6%
Los Angeles Lakers	100		Comeback	3.4 [541]		LVP	Luke Walton (LAL): -27.9%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.13	0.16	-0.03	0.00	16	79%	0.35	3	-0.22	2	50%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	16	64%	0.13	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,0.02	-0.16	0.16	-0.02	19	28%	0.14	3	-0.12	1	0%	-0.02
Bobby Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	33%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Juan Carlos Navarro	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	7	50%	0.08	1	-0.10	2	0%	-0.18
Mike Conley	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	12	42%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	10	40%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0,-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	5	33%	-0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.06
Kyle Lowry	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.26	0.00	-0.25	0.01	7	44%	-0.26	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.34,0.46	0.46	0.15	0.29	-0.02	25	57%	0.48	1	-0.02	15	93%	0.16
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	7	71%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04	0.04	-0.06	0.09	-0.01	5	21%	0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.09
Javaris Crittenton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	117%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	11	45%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.03	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.04
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	9	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.08
Coby Karl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	3	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.09	-0.18	0.01	8	50%	-0.09	5	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	22.8	16.0	28.1	2.6	38.5	136.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM -15.6%

LAL +45.3%

MEM -9.8%

LAL +29.6%

LAL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	LAL	NBA	MEM	LAL	NBA
this game	15.8	14.1	15.4	103.1	103.1	105.7
season	14.9	14.6		103.3	110.6
opponent	15.2	14.9		104.1	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.3	15.4	15.9	16.5	15.8
LAL	13.5	12.8	14.1	16.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Jones	12	11	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-4	7	16.7	15.6	1.04	13.1	14.2	-1.13
Mike Conley	49	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.17	2	-3	5	15.7	15.8	-0.05	13.8	14.4	-0.56
Juan Carlos Navarro	45	44	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-3	5	15.7	15.8	-0.09	14.9	13.5	1.41
Darko Milicic	54	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	6	-13	15.5	16.0	-0.51	13.4	15.0	-1.67
Pau Gasol	89	91	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.54	8	-9	17	15.8	15.4	0.36	14.4	9.2	5.25
Mike Miller	90	92	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.55	8	-9	17	15.8	15.5	0.28	14.3	10.2	4.10
Kyle Lowry	47	47	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.30	-3	2	-5	15.8	15.7	0.05	14.4	13.8	0.56
Hakim Warrick	33	33	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	1	-3	15.8	15.7	0.13	14.1	14.1	0.04
Rudy Gay	61	63	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.02	-16	15	-31	15.7	15.9	-0.15	13.6	15.1	-1.49

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kwame Brown	51	52	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.67	7	-6	13	14.0	14.2	-0.11	15.6	15.9	-0.32
Derek Fisher	59	58	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.57	-3	4	-7	14.1	14.1	0.07	15.6	15.9	-0.31
Kobe Bryant	73	72	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	-1	3	13.7	15.3	-1.59	15.8	15.6	0.18
Luke Walton	76	76	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.46	-5	6	-11	14.3	13.3	0.97	15.7	16.0	-0.30
Lamar Odom	67	66	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.43	-5	6	-11	14.4	13.4	0.95	15.3	16.8	-1.51
Andrew Bynum	42	40	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	0	1	13.6	14.5	-0.84	15.6	15.9	-0.32
Trevor Ariza	32	31	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	0	1	14.5	13.9	0.56	16.4	15.5	0.88
Coby Karl	11	10	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	0	1	14.8	14.0	0.82	14.0	16.0	-1.97
Jordan Farmar	38	38	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.10	4	-3	7	14.1	14.1	-0.07	15.9	15.6	0.31
Javaris Crittenton	13	14	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	3	-5	15.7	13.8	1.85	16.8	15.6	1.20
Ronny Turiaf	23	23	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.25	4	-3	7	13.0	14.4	-1.43	17.2	15.3	1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.7,0.75,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.76,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.55,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 108, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.86,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.84,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.67,0.83,1	92.0%
CLE 94, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.86,0.82,0.66,0.81,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.42,1	91.8%
NYK 105, PHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.76,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.79,0.86,0.92,0.87,0.76,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.16,1	90.9%