NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	90		Excitement	3.6 [1057]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): +9.7%
San Antonio Spurs	80		Comeback	1.5 [454]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -15.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.02	0.05	15	68%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.01	16	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	3	87%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	13	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	10	46%	0.04	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Rodney Stuckey	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	8	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.01
Jason Maxiell	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.03	-0.04	8	25%	-0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.01	0.04	16	59%	0.09	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	3	100%	0.09	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	2	150%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	3	100%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Richardson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.00	0.02	13	39%	-0.06	5	-0.09	5	80%	-0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.04	0.01	12	31%	-0.10	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.8	29.1	19.7	24.0	3.6	41.4	145.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +28.2%

DET +3.1%

DET +5.1%

DET +10.9%

DET +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	18.0	15.2	15.4	104.7	90.9	105.7
season	16.8	16.5		108.8	104.7
opponent	15.3	15.8		100.5	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.3	20.1	19.5	17.4	18.0
SAS	17.5	15.1	16.5	12.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	43	46	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	-4	18	17.7	18.3	-0.65	17.2	12.9	4.36
Chauncey Billups	69	70	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.17	8	2	6	17.7	19.0	-1.28	15.1	15.5	-0.43
Rasheed Wallace	74	74	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	1	8	17.5	20.8	-3.32	14.8	17.1	-2.27
Richard Hamilton	74	76	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.17	7	3	4	17.4	21.7	-4.29	14.6	18.6	-3.96
Tayshaun Prince	67	69	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	3	4	17.7	18.8	-1.04	16.1	11.6	4.57
Jarvis Hayes	31	31	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	5	0	18.7	17.5	1.20	13.2	16.2	-2.98
Jason Maxiell	49	50	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.32	-5	15	-20	19.3	16.2	3.04	14.4	16.1	-1.67
Lindsey Hunter	13	13	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	7	-4	17.8	18.0	-0.15	12.1	15.7	-3.62
Rodney Stuckey	10	11	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	8	-6	21.9	17.5	4.44	19.4	14.6	4.81

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fabricio Oberto	32	31	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.26	12	-22	34	17.6	13.8	3.78	18.4	17.7	0.64
Ime Udoka	12	12	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-13	16	14.1	15.3	-1.25	17.8	18.0	-0.17
Jeremy Richardson	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	7.0	15.4	-8.45	17.7	18.0	-0.32
Matt Bonner	33	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-9	8	13.2	16.3	-3.12	18.9	17.4	1.51
Michael Finley	63	60	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-10	10	15.3	14.8	0.50	18.6	16.4	2.23
Jacque Vaughn	35	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.13	-3	-7	4	13.9	16.0	-2.16	18.6	17.5	1.11
Francisco Elson	15	13	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.01	-8	-2	-6	12.9	15.6	-2.68	19.4	17.7	1.66
Bruce Bowen	46	46	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.09	-5	-5	0	16.1	14.1	2.04	17.5	18.5	-0.93
Tim Duncan	73	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-8	6	15.6	12.9	2.68	17.7	19.4	-1.66
Tony Parker	57	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.11	-8	-2	-6	15.9	13.9	1.99	17.9	18.1	-0.24
Robert Horry	16	15	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.16	-20	10	-30	17.4	14.7	2.71	16.1	18.4	-2.23
Manu Ginobili	55	53	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.06	-20	10	-30	14.1	16.9	-2.85	17.0	19.5	-2.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.09,0.18,0.14,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 112, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
NYK 92, DAL 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.03,0,0	94.8%
TOR 108, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.11,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.02,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.8%