NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	121		Excitement	10.3 [50]		MVP	Stephen Jackson (GSW): +59.4%
Golden State Warriors	130		Comeback	2.1 [548]		LVP	Robert Horry (SAS): -6.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.47	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.47	0.15	0.33	0.01	20	67%	0.55	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
Tim Duncan	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.34,0.23,0.23	0.14	0.09	0.00	19	59%	0.25	1	-0.01	16	87%	0.10
Ime Udoka	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.3,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	9	59%	0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.01	0.07	-0.03	15	59%	0.20	5	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Michael Finley	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.00	11	61%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	8	37%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	1	60%	0.01	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.07,0.07,0.27,0.59,0.59	0.59	0.07	0.54	0.02	21	57%	0.65	3	-0.06	9	100%	0.11
Baron Davis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57	0.57	0.27	0.31	0.01	18	74%	0.57	0	0.00	10	90%	0.06
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.18	0.06	0.00	7	114%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.00	9	72%	0.13	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	7	56%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.02	8	65%	0.05	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	18	44%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	31.4	15.4	25.4	2.6	36.3	2.5	15.1	156.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	1.9	17.1	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +43.8%

GSW +1.2%

GSW +12.6%

GSW +2.5%

SAS -10.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	16.2	14.8	15.4	118.6	126.2	105.7
season	16.5	13.5		104.7	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.3		107.9	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	15.5	17.3	17.4	16.0	13.4	16.2
GSW	15.1	13.4	13.3	16.8	16.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacque Vaughn	20	20	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.06	1	-10	11	16.9	16.1	0.83	16.3	14.4	1.87
Fabricio Oberto	22	22	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.04	4	-13	17	17.1	16.0	1.15	16.1	14.4	1.70
Bruce Bowen	57	57	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-9	9	17.3	14.9	2.41	14.2	15.6	-1.39
Matt Bonner	16	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-6	3	16.7	16.2	0.54	16.0	14.6	1.43
Robert Horry	29	28	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-7	5	15.9	16.4	-0.52	13.6	15.2	-1.63
Ime Udoka	46	48	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-3	-3	15.7	16.7	-0.98	15.2	14.5	0.69
Michael Finley	78	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.31	-5	-4	-1	16.3	16.0	0.25	15.0	14.2	0.79
Manu Ginobili	80	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.19	-11	2	-13	15.8	17.9	-2.13	15.0	14.0	1.00
Tim Duncan	80	81	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.19	-13	4	-17	16.0	17.1	-1.15	14.4	16.1	-1.70
Tony Parker	82	83	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.30	-10	1	-11	16.1	16.9	-0.83	14.4	16.3	-1.87

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andris Biedrins	78	79	1.39	-0.89	2.29	0.87	18	-9	27	14.4	16.2	-1.80	16.6	15.1	1.43
Baron Davis	93	92	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.20	13	-4	17	14.7	15.4	-0.67	16.1	17.9	-1.85
Monta Ellis	98	97	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.29	5	4	1	14.8	14.8	-0.00	16.4	12.4	4.03
Stephen Jackson	91	89	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	4	1	14.9	13.7	1.18	16.3	15.8	0.45
Kelenna Azubuike	50	47	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.04	10	-1	11	13.3	16.2	-2.99	16.3	16.1	0.19
Matt Barnes	17	18	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.06	5	4	1	13.1	15.1	-2.01	14.4	16.6	-2.17
Al Harrington	42	42	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.21	-4	13	-17	15.8	14.1	1.63	16.6	15.9	0.69
Mickael Pietrus	46	46	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	-0.16	-7	16	-23	16.8	13.2	3.63	15.7	16.6	-0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.71,0.6,0.7,0.81,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.59,0.54,0.4,0.53,0.77,0.93,0.91,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.33,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 89, HOU 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.74,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.47,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.31,0.45,0.33,0.73,1	88.5%
ORL 78, NOK 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.72,0.69,0.75,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.46,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.95,1	88.5%
WAS 114, PHI 116	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.69,0.65,0.75,0.63,0.7,0.6,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.63,0.77,0.79,0.91,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.85,0.84,0.54,0.39,0.29,0.55,0.87,1	88.4%