NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	92		Excitement	7.8 [263]		MVP	Glen Davis (BOS): +56.5%
Detroit Pistons	85		Comeback	2.9 [285]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -13.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Davis	0.56	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.44,0.44,0.57	0.19	0.38	0.00	10	80%	0.57	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Scot Pollard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	4	37%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	11	48%	0.08	2	-0.07	9	78%	0.04
Tony Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	6	62%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	8	53%	0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie House	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	16	47%	0.08	4	-0.16	8	100%	0.05
Rajon Rondo	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	7	17%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,-0.01,-0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13	0.13	-0.01	0.08	-0.06	16	47%	0.20	1	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	6	72%	0.09	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.01	4	60%	0.10	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Primoz Brezec	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.06	0.00	16	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.10	-0.01	12	52%	-0.03	2	-0.06	9	67%	-0.05
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	12	29%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.4	32.5	16.7	29.1	2.5	39.8	149.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +34.6%

BOS +26.0%

BOS +9.5%

DET -18.5%

DET -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	15.5	18.8	15.4	109.5	101.2	105.7
season	15.6	16.8		108.0	108.8
opponent	15.8	15.9		101.3	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	18.7	14.6	14.7	14.4	15.5
DET	20.3	17.3	19.6	18.4	18.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Davis	42	42	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.28	17	-10	27	14.6	16.4	-1.81	18.1	19.5	-1.33
Kevin Garnett	57	58	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.10	23	-16	39	14.5	17.6	-3.08	19.2	17.8	1.36
Eddie House	32	33	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-4	15	14.0	16.4	-2.37	18.5	19.0	-0.55
Paul Pierce	81	80	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	1	5	15.4	17.0	-1.56	18.9	16.2	2.66
Ray Allen	48	50	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.36	1	6	-5	16.0	14.8	1.22	18.7	18.9	-0.16
Tony Allen	39	39	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.13	5	2	3	15.7	15.3	0.45	17.6	19.8	-2.18
Scot Pollard	11	11	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	8	-9	14.5	15.6	-1.10	15.6	19.3	-3.62
Rajon Rondo	44	43	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.06	-4	11	-15	16.4	14.5	1.81	19.4	18.1	1.30
James Posey	19	19	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.18	-13	20	-33	17.2	15.0	2.21	19.5	18.6	0.89
Kendrick Perkins	47	45	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.00	-10	17	-27	16.6	14.1	2.49	19.8	17.6	2.28

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Primoz Brezec	4	5	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-5	3	22.5	18.6	3.90	15.6	15.5	0.11
Arron Afflalo	6	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.07	-5	-2	-3	17.0	18.9	-1.92	10.9	15.9	-5.06
Jarvis Hayes	21	22	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.13	-10	3	-13	19.0	18.7	0.22	15.5	15.5	-0.00
Rodney Stuckey	23	24	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	-1	-5	18.7	18.8	-0.06	13.9	16.1	-2.22
Jason Maxiell	52	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-10	13	18.5	19.3	-0.85	16.0	14.8	1.20
Antonio McDyess	48	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.17	-15	8	-23	18.6	19.0	-0.33	14.7	16.7	-2.02
Tayshaun Prince	63	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.42	3	-10	13	18.7	19.0	-0.22	15.5	15.5	0.00
Richard Hamilton	69	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-3	-1	18.8	18.6	0.23	16.0	13.6	2.39
Chauncey Billups	70	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.38	1	-8	9	18.9	18.1	0.77	16.1	12.9	3.21
Rasheed Wallace	64	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.44	0	-7	7	18.9	18.3	0.57	15.7	14.8	0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.16,0.06,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 92, MIA 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.04,0.04,0	92.8%
CLE 98, ORL 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.1,0.04,0.1,0.17,0	92.1%
TOR 89, MIA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.21,0.09,0.27,0	91.9%