NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	90		Excitement	4.3 [941]		MVP	James Jones (POR): +19.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	79		Comeback	1.1 [969]		LVP	Ryan Gomes (MIN): -7.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.17	0.02	0.00	7	95%	0.19	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Brandon Roy	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.02	21	50%	0.10	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Channing Frye	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.04	6	36%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Przybilla	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Travis Outlaw	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	7	31%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Steve Blake	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	16	45%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Martell Webster	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	9	39%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.08	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	10	33%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	8	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	9	35%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.06	-0.04	0.08	24	51%	-0.02	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	9	48%	-0.02	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.5	28.3	15.4	25.6	2.0	31.0	128.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +31.9%

POR +4.1%

POR +0.3%

POR +14.5%

MIN -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIN	NBA	POR	MIN	NBA
this game	17.7	16.8	15.4	108.4	94.0	105.7
season	16.7	15.9		105.5	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.4		109.6	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	18.4	16.8	18.6	17.0	17.7
MIN	16.7	16.7	16.6	17.3	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Channing Frye	43	45	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.02	18	-7	25	16.1	19.4	-3.31	15.5	18.3	-2.80
Jarrett Jack	41	43	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	2	7	16.8	18.5	-1.70	17.0	16.7	0.29
Brandon Roy	64	63	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	9	-7	18.5	14.9	3.52	16.7	17.4	-0.73
Travis Outlaw	41	42	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.06	8	3	5	16.7	18.6	-1.94	17.1	16.5	0.62
Martell Webster	41	41	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.05	8	3	5	18.5	16.9	1.63	16.6	17.0	-0.39
LaMarcus Aldridge	65	63	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.29	-2	13	-15	18.4	15.1	3.33	17.1	16.1	0.98
James Jones	42	43	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	8	-5	16.9	18.5	-1.63	17.0	16.6	0.39
Sergio Rodriguez	20	22	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.09	9	2	7	14.5	18.7	-4.10	16.6	16.9	-0.27
Steve Blake	41	40	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	9	-7	18.8	16.6	2.21	17.1	16.6	0.46
Joel Przybilla	17	18	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	13	-15	21.3	16.7	4.57	18.5	16.4	2.12

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	20	20	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-13	15	19.3	16.1	3.24	21.1	16.6	4.53
Ryan Gomes	50	52	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-11	11	17.4	16.0	1.40	18.7	15.9	2.76
Corey Brewer	45	43	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.25	5	-16	21	17.7	15.8	1.89	18.2	17.1	1.13
Sebastian Telfair	58	60	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.22	2	-13	15	17.1	16.3	0.71	18.5	15.5	2.96
Antoine Walker	36	32	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-5	-1	15.4	17.9	-2.48	16.5	18.4	-1.84
Gerald Green	30	28	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	-2	-7	16.8	16.9	-0.05	16.1	18.4	-2.29
Marko Jaric	32	29	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	2	-15	16.0	17.3	-1.30	16.0	18.5	-2.50
Al Jefferson	67	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-6	1	16.7	17.4	-0.65	18.4	13.9	4.49
Craig Smith	45	45	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.04	-13	2	-15	17.1	16.6	0.50	15.8	19.9	-4.12
Rashad McCants	37	37	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.02	-18	7	-25	15.4	18.0	-2.60	16.7	18.5	-1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 89, MIN 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.23,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.04,0	95.5%
LAL 100, MIN 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.26,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.23,0.18,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
MIA 116, MIN 106	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	95.3%