NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	116		Excitement	4.0 [985]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +36.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	106		Comeback	1.2 [504]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -11.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.37	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.38	0.04	0.05	13	118%	0.37	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.02	-0.01	8	88%	0.14	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.14	0.03	0.07	11	78%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.04	15	43%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	64%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	30%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	-0.04	11	42%	-0.01	5	-0.10	4	75%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.14	-0.01	0.06	22	70%	0.15	3	-0.07	6	83%	-0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.11	0.00	0.06	10	80%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
William Avery	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	8	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	9	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	6	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	14	47%	-0.01	4	-0.07	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	3.4	28.6	17.6	23.2	3.4	37.5	136.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.5%

MIA +4.4%

MIA +12.7%

MIN -6.8%

MIN -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	15.9	15.8	15.2	126.1	117.8	101.7
season	15.7	15.1		101.2	103.5
opponent	15.7	15.9		101.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.3	16.0	16.4	16.9	15.9
MIN	15.7	17.5	17.1	13.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	84	84	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.12	14	-4	18	15.5	20.2	-4.77	15.8	15.0	0.81
Jamal Mashburn	84	81	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	-1	12	15.7	18.1	-2.45	16.0	13.2	2.81
Voshon Lenard	38	37	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.13	15	-5	20	16.3	15.6	0.77	15.8	15.8	0.00
P.J. Brown	55	53	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	9	-8	15.9	15.8	0.09	16.0	15.4	0.59
Alonzo Mourning	58	58	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.14	5	5	0	15.9	15.9	0.01	15.8	15.7	0.01
Otis Thorpe	39	37	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.10	5	5	0	16.2	15.7	0.46	15.6	15.8	-0.23
Anthony Carter	68	67	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.29	-3	13	-16	15.9	15.7	0.19	15.2	17.4	-2.26
Clar. Weatherspoon	34	33	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	8	-6	16.5	15.6	0.92	15.8	15.7	0.15

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wally Szczerbiak	15	15	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.19	5	-15	20	13.5	16.2	-2.75	18.3	15.4	2.92
William Avery	6	7	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-8	6	15.8	15.7	0.08	18.0	15.7	2.28
Rasho Nesterovic	39	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-8	6	16.6	15.1	1.47	15.5	16.2	-0.75
Dean Garrett	3	4	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.05	-6	-4	-2	15.7	15.8	-0.09	13.2	16.0	-2.76
Bobby Jackson	4	3	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.07	-7	-3	-4	23.0	15.4	7.58	11.7	16.0	-4.37
Anthony Peeler	48	50	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-7	4	15.3	16.3	-0.95	16.1	15.7	0.37
Terrell Brandon	80	82	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-9	8	15.4	18.7	-3.31	15.9	16.1	-0.23
Sam Mitchell	52	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-3	-4	16.2	15.1	1.17	15.3	16.8	-1.54
Malik Sealy	62	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	0	-10	15.6	16.0	-0.35	15.7	16.4	-0.71
Joe Smith	55	55	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-3	-4	15.7	15.8	-0.07	16.5	14.9	1.58
Kevin Garnett	86	87	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.19	-10	0	-10	15.8	14.2	1.58	15.8	16.8	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 112, ORL 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.22,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
SAS 90, CLE 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
SAS 115, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.2,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%