NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	87		Excitement	3.4 [1090]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +18.4%
San Antonio Spurs	111		Comeback	2.8 [950]		LVP	Damon Stoudamire (MEM): -9.3%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	13	50%	0.06	0	0.00	6	50%	0.00
Mike Conley	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	4	46%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.00
Pau Gasol	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.03	12	59%	0.04	1	-0.01	8	75%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	0.00	0.06	3	86%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Carlos Navarro	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.01	0.02	9	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	-0.00
Hakim Warrick	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	7	27%	-0.00	1	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	8	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Stromile Swift	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Darko Milicic	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	11	48%	0.00	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.01	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.19	0.02	0.02	12	85%	0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.15	0.02	0.03	8	86%	0.17	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.01	0.04	12	67%	0.12	3	-0.06	12	100%	0.05
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	5	80%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	3	86%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Langford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	37%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.07	0.04	20	51%	0.10	5	-0.11	7	57%	-0.03
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	6	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.4	29.5	15.5	31.4	1.0	30.4	136.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +26.8%

SAS +7.4%

SAS +5.4%

SAS +8.7%

SAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAS	NBA	MEM	SAS	NBA
this game	14.9	16.6	15.4	95.6	120.7	105.7
season	14.9	16.5		103.3	104.7
opponent	15.3	14.9		100.5	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.6	16.1	15.8	13.3	14.9
SAS	15.4	19.0	15.5	16.7	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Casey Jacobsen	11	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-20	16	13.2	15.1	-1.93	17.0	16.5	0.47
Andre Brown	11	11	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.14	-5	-19	14	11.9	15.3	-3.38	18.7	16.3	2.43
Hakim Warrick	16	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.17	-7	-17	10	14.0	15.1	-1.07	16.5	16.6	-0.06
Kyle Lowry	28	29	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-23	22	13.6	15.4	-1.84	17.4	16.2	1.26
Mike Conley	39	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.15	-9	-15	6	14.3	15.3	-0.96	16.9	16.4	0.49
Juan Carlos Navarro	49	50	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.25	-15	-9	-6	14.4	15.4	-0.98	16.9	16.2	0.77
Stromile Swift	12	13	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.10	-10	-14	4	17.7	14.5	3.21	17.5	16.4	1.02
Damon Stoudamire	32	32	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.07	-7	-17	10	16.3	14.1	2.16	15.6	17.1	-1.57
Darko Milicic	50	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.10	-16	-8	-8	15.7	13.9	1.73	17.7	15.1	2.59
Rudy Gay	61	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.15	-18	-6	-12	15.0	14.7	0.32	16.2	17.3	-1.11
Pau Gasol	70	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	-12	0	15.0	14.5	0.52	15.6	19.5	-3.86
Mike Miller	76	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	-8	-8	15.0	14.1	0.97	16.2	18.5	-2.33

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	62	62	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.31	30	-6	36	16.6	16.6	0.03	16.0	12.4	3.62
Michael Finley	58	57	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.01	18	6	12	17.6	14.9	2.61	15.6	13.7	1.83
Bruce Bowen	67	67	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.22	21	3	18	15.4	19.7	-4.30	15.3	13.7	1.53
Tony Parker	66	66	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.12	8	16	-8	16.3	17.3	-0.95	15.3	13.7	1.60
Robert Horry	30	31	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	15	-6	16.1	16.8	-0.77	15.7	14.5	1.21
Jacque Vaughn	36	36	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.21	14	10	4	18.0	15.7	2.28	14.7	15.0	-0.35
Matt Bonner	46	43	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.27	15	9	6	16.7	16.5	0.17	14.8	15.0	-0.21
Ime Udoka	46	45	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.10	4	20	-16	16.4	16.7	-0.30	13.6	16.2	-2.57
Keith Langford	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	20	-16	17.0	16.5	0.47	13.2	15.1	-1.93
Francisco Elson	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	21	-18	17.1	16.5	0.59	11.1	15.2	-4.12
DerMarr Johnson	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	21	-18	17.1	16.5	0.59	11.1	15.2	-4.12
Fabricio Oberto	22	21	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.19	-9	33	-42	16.4	16.7	-0.29	12.9	15.5	-2.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 102, MIN 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.69,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.98,1,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.6%
ATL 78, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.72,0.72,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
MEM 109, OKC 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.68,0.8,0.78,0.89,0.88,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%