NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	95		Excitement	6.2 [551]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): +14.8%
Orlando Magic	104		Comeback	1.6 [702]		LVP	Emeka Okafor (CHA): -10.5%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.16	-0.03	0.01	21	68%	0.20	3	-0.08	8	100%	0.05
Matt Carroll	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.00	8	59%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.06	-0.03	15	66%	0.15	7	-0.18	5	80%	0.00
Raymond Felton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	11	48%	0.05	4	-0.09	5	60%	-0.03
Jeff McInnis	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Emeka Okafor	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	6	33%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.01	-0.05	20	61%	0.18	3	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.08	-0.01	16	55%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.07	-0.00	4	46%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.03	9	55%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	10	47%	0.11	3	-0.10	12	42%	-0.04
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	14	48%	-0.02	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	31.4	16.6	28.0	2.5	33.4	141.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +9.7%

ORL +18.0%

ORL +5.8%

ORL +13.4%

ORL +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	ORL	NBA	CHA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	15.4	103.3	113.0	105.7
season	15.8	15.1		103.1	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.1		104.6	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.4	17.3	15.7	14.1	15.6
ORL	14.0	17.9	13.7	17.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Carroll	39	40	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.21	14	-23	37	14.8	16.2	-1.46	15.7	15.7	0.05
Nazr Mohammed	40	38	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.10	9	-18	27	15.5	15.7	-0.10	15.8	15.6	0.20
Derek Anderson	25	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-7	5	16.8	15.2	1.64	15.9	15.6	0.25
Gerald Wallace	81	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	15.4	17.5	-2.10	15.8	14.5	1.34
Jason Richardson	78	77	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.24	-9	0	-9	15.5	16.3	-0.80	15.5	16.8	-1.32
Raymond Felton	83	83	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.12	-16	7	-23	15.6	15.6	0.06	15.9	13.9	2.00
Jeff McInnis	62	61	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.14	-16	7	-23	16.1	14.5	1.60	15.4	16.3	-0.85
Emeka Okafor	52	54	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.13	-18	9	-27	15.7	15.5	0.10	15.6	15.8	-0.20

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	80	82	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.22	15	-6	21	15.6	16.4	-0.83	15.9	13.6	2.25
Carlos Arroyo	76	76	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-5	19	16.2	13.5	2.66	15.6	15.8	-0.25
Hedo Turkoglu	79	79	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.13	13	-4	17	15.7	15.5	0.18	15.3	17.2	-1.89
Dwight Howard	81	80	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.27	7	2	5	15.5	17.3	-1.79	15.4	16.8	-1.41
Keith Bogans	71	71	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.07	10	-1	11	15.9	15.1	0.78	15.5	16.1	-0.69
Keyon Dooling	30	30	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	13	-17	14.5	16.3	-1.82	15.6	15.6	0.04
Adonal Foyle	11	12	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	7	-5	17.3	15.5	1.79	16.8	15.4	1.41
Maurice Evans	24	23	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.08	-3	12	-15	15.7	15.7	-0.04	17.2	15.1	2.14
JJ Redick	8	7	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.08	-9	18	-27	15.2	15.7	-0.49	12.4	15.9	-3.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.8,0.82,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.87,0.96,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 128, GSW 132	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.66,0.61,0.65,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.83,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,1	93.7%
HOU 92, DET 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.43,0.58,0.68,0.79,0.84,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.7%
WAS 104, GSW 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.88,0.85,0.74,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.83,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	93.7%