NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	87		Excitement	7.6 [292]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +53.7%
Boston Celtics	85		Comeback	3.3 [159]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -27.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.43	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.43	0.09	0.35	0.00	17	62%	0.70	3	-0.27	11	91%	0.09
Richard Hamilton	0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.17	0.02	0.03	11	87%	0.19	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.00	4	62%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	9	54%	0.10	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Jason Maxiell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	3	37%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jarvis Hayes	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	10	45%	0.02	5	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21	-0.14	-0.07	-0.01	10	10%	-0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.54	0.54	0.20	0.35	0.02	13	83%	0.54	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	15	65%	0.20	5	-0.16	10	80%	0.01
Tony Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.05	-0.06	0.04	10	67%	0.05	2	-0.09	1	0%	-0.02
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	31%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.07
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.27	-0.27	-0.15	-0.13	-0.01	16	31%	-0.13	4	-0.15	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	3.6	29.2	18.8	27.5	3.0	37.8	147.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -15.1%

DET +52.0%

DET +13.7%

BOS -8.9%

DET +8.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	18.1	16.2	15.4	104.8	100.0	105.7
season	16.8	15.6		108.8	108.0
opponent	15.9	15.8		98.3	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.6	19.2	16.2	18.6	18.1
BOS	17.5	15.1	17.3	15.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	58	59	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.50	3	-1	4	17.6	19.4	-1.83	16.5	15.5	1.05
Jason Maxiell	36	36	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	-9	20	18.6	17.8	0.77	15.6	16.7	-1.10
Rasheed Wallace	62	65	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.41	-2	4	-6	18.1	18.2	-0.09	16.3	15.7	0.57
Lindsey Hunter	20	19	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.23	4	-2	6	17.0	18.5	-1.41	15.7	16.3	-0.65
Chauncey Billups	64	66	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.35	-2	4	-6	18.2	17.9	0.29	16.3	15.7	0.65
Richard Hamilton	65	69	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.32	-1	3	-4	17.0	22.2	-5.24	16.4	15.4	1.00
Arron Afflalo	18	16	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.12	3	-1	4	22.2	17.0	5.24	15.4	16.4	-1.00
Antonio McDyess	67	69	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.24	-5	7	-12	18.2	17.9	0.23	16.4	15.3	1.08
Jarvis Hayes	25	26	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.06	-1	3	-4	19.4	17.6	1.83	15.5	16.5	-1.05

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scot Pollard	11	12	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-2	2	16.2	16.2	-0.01	21.1	17.6	3.46
Rajon Rondo	57	57	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-5	8	17.0	14.5	2.52	18.6	17.0	1.63
Eddie House	23	24	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-3	4	15.5	16.5	-0.97	17.4	18.4	-0.99
Ray Allen	70	67	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.35	8	-10	18	16.4	15.3	1.04	17.4	21.2	-3.88
Glen Davis	19	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	3	-8	17.7	15.8	1.93	19.2	17.8	1.34
Kendrick Perkins	66	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	0	-2	16.0	16.8	-0.77	17.4	20.4	-3.00
Tony Allen	9	8	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	3	-8	10.7	16.8	-6.18	21.5	17.8	3.74
Kevin Garnett	71	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.46	0	-2	2	15.9	17.6	-1.74	18.2	17.8	0.40
Paul Pierce	73	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.42	-4	2	-6	16.3	15.6	0.70	17.7	20.5	-2.87
James Posey	26	27	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.40	-6	4	-10	16.3	16.2	0.12	19.2	17.6	1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.03,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 84, POR 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.22,0.17,0.11,0.05,0.08,0	93.3%
DEN 94, SEA 82	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.63,0.49,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.17,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.0%
CHA 108, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.67,0.52,0.37,0.41,0.34,0.18,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0	93.0%