NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	100		Excitement	9.0 [111]		MVP	Grant Hill (PHX): +36.8%
San Antonio Spurs	95		Comeback	3.0 [329]		LVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): -30.5%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.37	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.37	0.09	0.23	-0.05	12	73%	0.48	3	-0.11	6	100%	0.07
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.28	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.21,0.28	0.07	0.21	0.00	9	65%	0.48	2	-0.20	8	62%	0.05
Shawn Marion	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.09	-0.00	7	64%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.01	19	44%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Brian Skinner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Boris Diaw	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	11	46%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Steve Nash	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	8	50%	-0.05	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.09	-0.00	25	62%	0.28	2	-0.04	8	75%	0.03
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16	0.16	-0.06	0.19	-0.03	19	41%	0.26	2	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.25,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.08	-0.01	13	56%	0.34	2	-0.24	1	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	10	70%	0.15	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	0.00	6	42%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	5	40%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.3	-0.30	-0.10	-0.21	-0.01	4	0%	-0.25	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.7	29.3	15.4	28.2	2.3	36.3	137.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -0.1%

PHX +34.3%

SAS -2.6%

PHX +15.7%

PHX +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	SAS	NBA	PHX	SAS	NBA
this game	13.9	17.4	15.4	108.7	103.3	105.7
season	13.8	16.5		111.1	104.7
opponent	15.3	15.6		100.5	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	12.9	13.5	15.2	14.2	13.9
SAS	17.7	17.3	17.5	17.1	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Hill	60	62	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.44	5	0	5	13.9	14.0	-0.09	17.6	16.9	0.68
Shawn Marion	67	66	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.38	6	-1	7	13.7	14.4	-0.61	17.0	18.4	-1.38
Raja Bell	69	70	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.30	8	-3	11	13.6	14.8	-1.22	16.9	19.0	-2.05
Steve Nash	67	65	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.35	2	3	-1	13.7	14.6	-0.89	16.7	19.1	-2.38
Brian Skinner	22	23	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.32	-4	9	-13	14.7	13.7	1.07	19.0	16.9	2.14
Boris Diaw	58	56	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.06	6	-1	7	13.7	14.3	-0.60	17.7	16.9	0.87
Amar'e Stoudemire	60	61	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.12	-1	6	-7	14.4	13.1	1.30	17.5	17.3	0.20
Leandro Barbosa	57	57	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.08	3	2	1	14.2	13.4	0.83	17.9	16.5	1.46

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	13	13	0.20	-0.70	0.89	-0.01	7	-12	19	16.8	17.5	-0.72	11.8	14.3	-2.50
Jacque Vaughn	65	64	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.17	4	-9	13	18.0	16.0	2.02	14.7	12.0	2.75
Fabricio Oberto	39	40	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.03	-8	3	-11	16.2	18.3	-2.10	13.8	14.0	-0.24
Tim Duncan	69	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.36	5	-10	15	17.7	16.5	1.22	14.3	12.8	1.52
Robert Horry	25	24	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.01	-8	3	-11	19.5	16.6	2.92	13.1	14.2	-1.12
Bruce Bowen	68	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.35	-2	-3	1	17.0	18.5	-1.44	13.7	14.7	-0.99
Michael Finley	76	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.46	0	-5	5	17.0	19.2	-2.17	14.0	13.6	0.37
Brent Barry	43	44	-0.47	-0.02	-0.45	-0.18	-10	5	-15	17.6	17.2	0.31	13.7	14.1	-0.40
Manu Ginobili	62	61	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.27	-13	8	-21	17.2	17.7	-0.51	13.8	14.1	-0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.4,0.32,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.62,0.55,0.34,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 97, MIL 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.25,0.26,0.38,0.29,0.43,0.47,0.69,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.43,0.41,0	92.5%
MIA 77, CLE 75	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.57,0.72,0	91.4%
SAC 91, UTA 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.29,0.34,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.42,0	90.8%